Our Research


February 11, 2025

Dismantling Phillips 66 (PSX): Activist Play or Value Creation?

By Timm Schneider

…Our initial thoughts on Elliott’s ~50-page slide deck and proposal to unlock value at PSX. Link to the dedicated ‘Streamline 66’ website: Streamline66 | Elliott Management Leading with the Conclusion: PSX’s (Midstream) separation is not…

Read More >>

February 11, 2025

Topical Today: 1) Torque in the Venture Global (VG) Model; 2) Activism in Energy

By Timm Schneider

please see within for some initial thoughts. We had pointed out the leverage in VG’s business model (for better or for worse – the sword cuts both ways) in several previous notes. We published a…

Read More >>

February 11, 2025

Natural Gas: Weather Bulls Push Front Month Above $3.50 (Highest Since Jan-23). VG’s Plaquemines Plant Hits ~1.5bcf/d (new record)

By Timm Schneider

Natural Gas Futures have had a bullish start to February, currently trading at ~$3.55/mmbtu (NG1) versus a recent bottom (for the March contract) of ~$3/mmbtu on Jan-31. We just put a small-short position on at…

Read More >>

February 10, 2025

2025 M&A Outlook Survey Shows Clear Preferences for Who Should be Buying and Selling…

By Timm Schneider

We will keep the survey open through tomorrow post-close. Within we show ~100 M&A transactions that survey takers highlighted so far, sorted by 1) Acquiror; and by 2) Target. We have combined 1) ‘should happen;’…

Read More >>

February 10, 2025

Survey Portfolio Adds ~60Bps W/W; Venture Global (VG) Tactical Trade Ideas Yield More Bifurcated Performance

By Timm Schneider

***Please continue to fill out our 2025 M&A Outlook survey, if you have not done so already*** https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/3TTKVPW Please see the detailed note within for which stocks survey takers (Read On) have gotten right, and…

Read More >>

February 9, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 9th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

Read More >>

February 9, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 9th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

Read More >>

February 7, 2025

M&A Survey Sneak Peak: Whoever Dropped PSX for PAA, I Kind of Like That One. KMI for LNG would be a Monster. Lot of Interesting Ones…

By Timm Schneider

thx for the almost 50 responses already! On KMI for LNG (this was in the *SHOULD* happen – not the *WILL* happen). Sell the terminal assets to Buckeye (Private) and hopefully get some of the…

Read More >>

February 6, 2025

If Venture Global (VG) is one of the most hated stocks in Energy right now…

By Timm Schneider

…does that make us the ‘Voldemort of LNG’ (also given the physical resemblance) if we believe the risk/ reward is skewed to the upside w/ VG at ~$17p/s (which appears to be in the non-consensus…

Read More >>

February 6, 2025

Venture global (VG) is down ~12% Today; What Does ~$17p/s Imply in Terms of Key Assumptions

By Timm Schneider

Shares of a VG are down ~12% on the day at the time of this writing, underperforming peer Cheniere (LNG) and NFE by an average ~600bps. This is due to a combination of several perceived…

Read More >>

February 5, 2025

Short-Term Sentiment (Matters): Last Week’s *Most Loved* Outperform *Most Hated* by ~50Bps; Interesting Set-Ups in Midstream…

By Timm Schneider

Within, we share with you real-time 1) Current Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 2) W-W % Changes in Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 3) Borrow; and 4) Changes in 4-week moving average shares-on-loan utilization for ~200 publicly traded corporates across…

Read More >>

February 5, 2025

Texas Nat Gas Activity Levels Increase in January as Oil Completions Decline – Key Takes from the Monthly RRC Report

By Timm Schneider

Within, we provide our thoughts on The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) most recent monthly ‘Summary of Drilling Permits, Completions and Plugging Reports Processed’ for the month of January 2025. ***Happy to chat on specific stock takes…

Read More >>

February 3, 2025

Natural Gas: Front Month Surges ~11% as Weekend Weather Runs Ignite Bullish Sentiment

By Timm Schneider

Tariff discussions have dominated our recent conversations. We do not believe tariffs matter much for domestic natural gas, at least relative to domestic oil. That said, natural gas once again showed why it is one…

Read More >>

February 2, 2025

A CADastrophy in the making? We Don’t Believe So, BUT Some Feedback on our ‘Tariff Trades’ and Macro Thoughts

By Timm Schneider

please see within. Please note we closed our NG1 long position after electronic trade open earlier tonight. Timm Thx to all who reached out to chat and discuss the set-up! Opinions are all over the…

Read More >>

February 2, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 2nd

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

Read More >>