Our Research

…per Bloomberg on Friday. Seems far-fetched, at best. A report that PSX and MPC held merger talks earlier this year is a big headline (would love to see it just for ‘unleashing animal spirits’ reasons)…

Annoyed about the FRMI Long. Should have taken it off post the mid-week announcement (+23% vs. 6%) but we don’t mess with the book between the two-week windows. In any case, LHP 16 had a…

Within we present our list of *Top* potential M&A transactions where both seller and target are still publicly traded, using proprietary data going back to 2023. We divide the data into four Tiers, Tier 1…

Within, we share a few of the discussion topics that have been coming up most frequently following the bulk of 2Q earnings. The short version: Results were generally good. Better, in fact, than a market…

Key Take: We believe Western Gateway is best understood not as ‘just another Freedom or ICE,’ (Read On) but as a (relatively speaking) de‑risked, contracted corridor with embedded optionality for PSX’s integrated value chain, where…

The West Coast just quietly got a new lifeline. And Phillips 66 may be the biggest ‘winner.‘ Phillips 66 (PSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and HF Sinclair (DINO) have sanctioned Western Gateway, a ~$5bn, 1,300‑mile refined‑products…

This is a fun one… we are tracking sentiment shifts out of all our extremely detailed proprietary outlook surveys back to 2023. Honor system here… if you filled out a survey in the past I…

source: The Internet; Caddyshack meme Since Friday’s close, the Middle East has given us more risk, less resolution – at least in our view (full caveat this is as of noon today and can change…

This one is a bit longer for more weekend reading… Greetings from the Nation’s Capital. Here for a wedding (not mine) and had some downtime to go through the BRK Q2 results released today. Not…

***Full position details within*** …But still one more week to go until we close this one. Recall LHP16 = Love/ Hate Portfolio 16, or the 16th iteration of our fully sentiment (technical) based two-week trading…

***Your Monthly Texas Activity Tracker for July*** Texas activity is sending a more nuanced signal than the headline data suggest. July confirms that June’s apparent Barnett gas surge was largely reporting noise – exactly what…

Within we share some of the key discussion topics that keep popping up with clients. Some of these are boring, some of these are not boring. But it beats reading earnings recaps. In any case,…

especially when compared to our trading books i.e. the Love/ Hate Portfolios (+30% YTD). In any case, we closed out our NRG short last night so we are showing an updated Model Portfolio with current…

Apologies for the brevity on the road. This is in our model portfolio. Timm

The last part of our ~100-respondent 2H’26 Energy & Utility survey is out, and the contrarian signals are loud: ~45% call the AI/data-center theme ‘overhyped,’ yet Midstream/ Gas pipes are the runaway favorite (~35%) for…