Our Research

Hot off the press, the Dallas Fed released it’s Q3’26 Energy Survey just a few moments ago. The full report per the Dallas Fed website can be found here: Oil and gas activity increases despite…

Key Take: We believe the Wood River tour confirmed what we have been writing about for a quite a bit (and also highlighted on a prior Permian tour with PSX): PSX’s edge is no longer…

In our view, Amber/ Elliott’s pending acquisition of Citgo (N/R) has become a timing and regulatory thesis rather than a price thesis. Why are we writing about this now? Why not… but also happy to…

…Can this one get us to ~50% YTD? Would be a bit of a stretch as it would need ~600bps by the time we close it on Friday October 9th. But stranger things have happened….

There is nothing we love more than getting out ahead of an IPO – even if it’s just a hypothetical one – as is the case here. It’s amazing not being weighed down by the…

As always, within please find a collection of weekly news, current commmodity price marks via the decetralized exchange perpetuals, and a quick summary of where we stand (versus Friday’s close) as of ~12:30PM on Sunday….

We turned our DVN (N/R) buyer work into a full pdf deck, and truth be told, it looks pretty great (like the deck. Depends what numbers on scenarios one looks at otherwise). Again, in our…

In our view, we’ve squeezed every drop out of this one: Every filing, every proxy, every buyer, every test, and this is the answer (time for a drink tbh). Truth be told, we see zero…

We are calling this one a win, barely. Love/ Hate Portfolio 19 (LHP19; short-term sentiment/ quant-driven) closed its two-week run today up ~140bps. In our view that headline number undersells how much work the rest…

Based on our read, Devon’s activist moment is being framed as a simple choice: sell the gas and unlock the Delaware, or sell the company. We believe that framing is oversimplified. We built an extremely…

…and this is a big one… We have built a detailed, scenario-based framework for a potential Saudi Aramco GasCo listing designed to quantify a wide range of possible outcomes. Caveat: We have no idea what…

We appreciate the thoughtful feedback on our KMI portfolio-optimization work. Links to notes below: KMI (N/R): The Natural Gas Re-Rating Is Coming. Will KMI Capture It? KMI (N/R): Ready to Split?! The Sum-of-the-Parts Math on…

We appreciate all of the interest and feedback following our initial KMI note this morning. KMI (N/R): Ready to Split?! The Sum-of-the-Parts Math on Breaking Up Kinder Morgan To us, the natural follow-up question is…

Natural Gas pipelines vs. everything else, an SOTP stress test… We’ve spent much of 2H’26 asking which energy infrastructure names might get taken apart, and Kinder Morgan is a natural next stop for that debate….

… but worry not. We have been following this Buffalo Powerhouse for over 15 years and spent a ton of time modeling out both the Spin & Stub Co. With this note, which is a…