Our Research

Within we discuss: Inventories vs. curve: IEA May data show large crude and product draws and OECD stocks at multi‑decade lows, even as forward curves shift toward a post‑war surplus narrative. Demand gap: OPEC, IEA…

Rough day to be long crude, us included. Our front‑month WTI short didn’t come close to offsetting the hit to our Aug WTI calls and Dec‑27 long, and we’re now seriously debating closing that short…

for a total return of <drumroll> ~10bps since inception on January 9th 2026. Opening mark: $51.15 Closing mark: $50.75 This was a 2.2% position in the short book. CRK remains our primary Upstream gas short…

Short-term trades only here. Two-week life spans. 10 Longs vs. 10 Shorts. 100% sentiment driven. Our latest portfolio generated ~240bps in a volatile week as our FRMI Long and SOC Shorts were able to add…

Like the commodity. Not the company (Cheniere). But then again, why not the latter, as well? (Read On). Surprised LNG isn’t up more on the Bloomberg article, at least just on optics. Within we actually…

Within please find our updated Brent & WTI Probability & Pricing matrix. We have now moved to a five-scenario model, up from four, prior. Interesting Friday so far with both the U.S. and Iran going…

Call us if you want to chat. Full list within. Takes less than a minute. One-liners from discussions w/ folks. Timm WMB: Am I chasing here or is this still under-owned? DVN: Merger hangover is…

Permian (Texas) activity data implies ‘discipline and maintenance,’ not a ‘sprint,’ even as permit counts rebuild a sizable ‘call option’ on future (think 2027) Permian growth. In this note we rank monthly wells, completions, and…

We just spent the last few hours going through the latest EIA STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) reports. June was released today. Within we discuss some of the key changes in tone since the beginning of…

A few thoughts on the (oil) market narrative shifts from end of February through today. Maybe I should just get back to focusing solely on natural gas (unfortunately no one really cares at the moment)….

this is on a weighted basis. Please see within for full positon details. We sort these by: 1) Respective portfolio weight; 2) Total return (including dividends); and 3) actual cash lost/ made (i.e. weighted). Recall…

…a potentially strong(ish) volume set up in(to) 2027. Own exposure to volume here especially in the Permian (i.e. Midstream). Happy to chat how we play this in the model portfolio (TRGP is our largest long…

…Granted, not a particularly interesting fact in itself. What is interesting, at least to us, is that some of the upstream speakers were making the case that WTI could exit 2027 around $80, and they…

Today marks the 100th day of the Iran conflict. On the heels of Friday’s sell‑off, the story stopped being ‘just an oil shock’ and became a potentially full macro regime shift, rippling through factors and…

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