Our Research

LHP20 closes up ~200bps as we close it and will open LHP21 on Monday. In our view, the headline undersells what happened. We had a (fully disclosed) bad feeling about the HPK short at launch,…

Devon signed the sale of its Eagle Ford to Crescent today for ~$4.22bn (~$3.85bn net cash at close). In our view, it is a full price (DVN traded higher today), in the upper half of…

‘Able was I ere I saw Elba’ is probably the world’s most famous palindrome, a line attributed (apocryphally) to Napoleon on his way into exile. It reads the same forwards and backwards, which feels about…

HPK (N/R) just got itself a lifeline, and naturally we tore it apart. What does the Danantara preferred really cost common holders in a (hypothetical) sale? What is the stock worth if HPK simply stops…

Emera (EMA) and Canadian Utilities (CU) announced an all-share merger this morning, and we spent the day pulling it apart… In our view, there is a lot to like: Two of North America’s best growth…

There is nothing we love more than a thesis that works faster than planned. On 9/15 we initiated a Long TLN/ Short DUK pair on a simple view (PAIR TRADE IDEA: Long TLN vs. Short…

Today, ET (N/R) announced a ~$2.6bn bolt-on for Vaquero Midstream, roughly three quarters cash and the rest in new ET units (small potatoes on dilution). On paper it is a ~675 MMcf/d gas plant near…

Yesterday, Centalion (Gunvor with a new name…) bought Silver Hill’s Haynesville assets and, in our view, paid the richest mark of the cycle (at least on publicly available numbers). Truth be told, we believe they…

To the handful of investors who care about Canadian Upstream (we see you, all six of you): This one’s for you. Maybe that is where the value proposition itself lies. Cenovus (CVE) is paying C$12.00…

We’ve now valued both halves of the potential separation, updated as of 10-04-2026. We expect a decision on the potential spin no later than 10-15-2026, and it might be announced before in our view. StubCo,…

Boring weekend so far from a commodity trading perspective with both WTI and Brent virtually unchanged versus Friday’s electronic close on the decentralized exchanges. The important caveat: This is as of ~11:30AM ET and can…

This is a follow-up to our earlier note (Part 1) that took a detailed look at NFG’s regulated business: NFG (N/R): The Regulated ‘StubCo’ Could Be Worth Up to ~$61/sh Implying Just ~$16/sh for Upstream…

Our four-method ‘StubCo’ valuation ranges from ~$44 to ~$54/sh with a base case ~$50/sh, implying ~$27/sh for IUG (the Upstream & Gathering business) at NFG’s current ~$77 trading price. That ~$61 for ‘StubCo’ is the…

***Full position marks within*** Love/ Hate Portfolio 20 (LHP20) is up ~120bps at the halfway point (we will close it next Friday). The flips we made with this one (versus LHP19), pressing SMR and NEXT…

Our UGI/KKR ‘chatter’ note was the most-read note in September… and, in our (admittedly biased) opinion, arguably the best sell-side note on UGI in decades. It can be found here: UGI (N/R) & KKR (N/R)……