Our Research

Please see within for a few macro thoughts (Middle East focused) including all of the latest news as of ~17:15 ET heading into the weekend. New note idea? I get so many ratings change alerts…

Recall this is our purely sentiment driven, short-term (two weeks) Long/ Short (Love/Hate) Book (10 Longs/ 10 Shorts) as opposed to our actively managed Model Portfolio. We believe these short(er)-term market sentiment gauages are extremely…

I actually had the distinction of coming in last a few years ago in Dan Pickering’s pool (for the Energy peeps). Here is the link if you want to enter a bracket: PEP’s 2026 #EFT…

…and a few other questions/ themes/ topics that have been front of mind for our clients (recall we have a quite diverse client base – not just institutional investors) In no particular order. Ping us…

The naked WTI (May; CL2) short was becoming a tad stressful – especially when ‘doomscrolling’ news out of the Middle East. The P&L hits a bit different at ~4x leverage. Also my alma mater is…

Within we provide updated marks for our Model Portfolio, which has generated a return of ~640bps since inception on January 9th. Recall we started actively managing this book of ~40 longs and ~32 shorts mid-February…

I’ve been following oil and Middle East chokepoints for years (It all started when I lived there in the early 2000s w/ Halliburton/KBR for Operation Iraqi Freedom – some good stories here), and when the…

Closed out on all short nat gas positions. The sheer size of the oil contracts we had to free up some margin. Happy ot chat. Short mark @ $93 – WTI May-26 losing a lot…

Again – this is a short-term L/S book (10 positions each) we put on for two weeks mostly based on sentiment readings. The last one – LHP5 – was a disaster (What a Dumpster Fire…

This was our worst performing Love/Hate portfolio yet since we started running them at the beginning of the year. Recall these are short-term (Two weeks) Long/ Short books (10 positions on each side) largely constructed…

Net‑net, everything since Friday’s close is still skewing bullish(ish) for crude into the open (at least as of ~13:00 ET – but that can change minute by minute). Kharg’s oil infrastructure is intact but now explicitly…

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

Some interesting moves from 18:00 ET last night. We track HH/ WTI/ Brent/ Brent-WTI. Full caveat these are decentralized 24/7 exchanges running on the blockchain (not sure as to how this works), so should not…

Since the U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday (Read On), we have had a lot of inbounds on the impact for markets come Monday. This note is our attempt to distill the key…

Obviously, we can’t say for sure, but these two companies keep popping up as likely guesses in conversations with folks. Quick overview within. Ping us if you want to chat. Timm So these two ‘failed’…