Our Research


May 12, 2026

My Girlfriend was a ‘Theta’ in College – Naturally AI Thinks My ‘Theta’ Awareness is Zero (Real-World Learnings from Commodity Trading YTD)

By Timm Schneider

The Schneider Capital Group YTD Return in the Commodity Trading Account (Chart presented w/o comment…) source: Interactive Brokers So naturally we had AI take a look and give us some thoughts… kind of funny actually…

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May 12, 2026

Model Portfolio: And the Worst Call(s) of the Year (So Far) Are…

By Timm Schneider

Canada came after us with a vengeance – that is all we can say. Recall our model portfolio is an actively managed long/ short portfolio across the energy & utility sub-sectors (see within for full…

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May 11, 2026

Initiating Love/ Hate Portfolio 10 (LHP10)… This Looks Like a Fun One

By Timm Schneider

Please see within for our latest collection of 10 Longs (‘love’) versus 10 Shorts (‘Hate’) across the energy & utility sub-sectors. A few observations within. All entry marks as of ~16:00 ET on 5/11/2026. Historical…

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May 10, 2026

A Reasonable Probability‑Weighted Fair Value is ~$105- 110 for WTI and ~$118- 122 for Brent

By Timm Schneider

Based on deltas in prediction markets over the past two weeks on (Read On). Tied to: 1) all news flow (as of ~17:00 ET today) since April 28th (timing of our first note: We Had…

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May 10, 2026

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending May 10th 2026

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they…

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May 10, 2026

What Capital Discipline? Texas Upstream Activity Is Poised to Re‑Accelerate into 2H’26

By Timm Schneider

Now that we have your attention (and at the risk of sounding overly draconian), this seems to line up with comments from at least one large Texas operator coming out of earnings. What this actually…

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May 9, 2026

Closing Love/Hate Portfolio 9 (LHP) For a ~90bps Grind Higher in Volatile Two Weeks

By Timm Schneider

A few key observations Flipping FRMI/ SEDG/ and SOC to Shorts from Longs in the prior Love/ Hate portfolio worked out well (+4.4%/ +10%/ +5.3%, respectively). APC (NOT Anadarko Petroleum) turned out to be a…

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May 3, 2026

Oil Dumping (~17:00 ET) on ‘Project Freedom’ Announcement… What Happened Over the Weekend?

By Timm Schneider

Quick update since our Saturday evening note (This Weekend’s News Flow *Had* Been Eerily Quiet…). The short version: The paperwork is flying, the rhetoric is loud, and our S1 (War at the Chokepoint: Our (Updated)…

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May 3, 2026

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending May 3rd 2026

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they…

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May 2, 2026

This Weekend’s News Flow *Had* Been Eerily Quiet…

By Timm Schneider

with respect to the Iran conflict. Until news of a new Iranian 14-point proposal and a POTUS post on Truth Social just now (see within). As we await the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby,…

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May 2, 2026

Iran, Higher Oil and the Sequencing of Consumer Demand Destruction

By Timm Schneider

What is current demand destruction across the energy (and broader economic) value chain on the heels of surging commodity prices due to the Iran situation? That is one of the most frequent questions we have…

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April 29, 2026

Easy, Peasy, What Feels ‘Squeezy?’ Real-Time Short Interest Analysis for ~200 Issuers

By Timm Schneider

Within, we provide real-time short interest for ~200 issuers across: 1) Midstream & Energy Infrastructure; 2) Clean Tech & Alternative Energy; 3) E&Ps; 4) Integrateds/ Majors & Refiners; 5) Global Oilfield Services & Equipment; 6)…

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April 28, 2026

DVN/CTRA: Kimmeridge Just Raised the Bar for Act II; The Commandatore is on His Way…

By Timm Schneider

Please see Kimmeridge’s official letter from this am: “Time for Action”: Kimmeridge Releases Letter to the Future Board of Devon Energy source: The Internet On the Opera reference (at the risk of being overly dramatic…

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April 28, 2026

OPEC… Minus One: What Happens When Abu Dhabi ‘Unfriends’ the Cartel

By Timm Schneider

Of course, we can’t say for sure… BUT… A founding OPEC member just walked away in the middle of the worst supply shock in years. On May 1, the UAE will no longer be bound…

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April 28, 2026

We Had Two AI Engines Run Daily Brent & WTI Forecasts Through End‑May Assuming the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed

By Timm Schneider

The output is quite interesting. See the respective charts within. We have been feeding these engines with all available information since the beginning of the Iran conflict in late February (prompts literally take minutes to…

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