Our Research

We just spent the last few hours going through the latest EIA STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) reports. June was released today. Within we discuss some of the key changes in tone since the beginning of…

A few thoughts on the (oil) market narrative shifts from end of February through today. Maybe I should just get back to focusing solely on natural gas (unfortunately no one really cares at the moment)….

this is on a weighted basis. Please see within for full positon details. We sort these by: 1) Respective portfolio weight; 2) Total return (including dividends); and 3) actual cash lost/ made (i.e. weighted). Recall…

…a potentially strong(ish) volume set up in(to) 2027. Own exposure to volume here especially in the Permian (i.e. Midstream). Happy to chat how we play this in the model portfolio (TRGP is our largest long…

…Granted, not a particularly interesting fact in itself. What is interesting, at least to us, is that some of the upstream speakers were making the case that WTI could exit 2027 around $80, and they…

Today marks the 100th day of the Iran conflict. On the heels of Friday’s sell‑off, the story stopped being ‘just an oil shock’ and became a potentially full macro regime shift, rippling through factors and…

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they…

Within, please find our latest short-term sentiment based trading book – LHP12. Ten longs, ten shorts. ***Full position details within*** (While we equally weigh all these positions on each side – love vs. hate –…

…while our cumulative return on our short-term (two week holding period; sentiment weighted) Love/ Hate Portfolios reaches a 2026 high at +750bps. Recall our Love/ Hate portfolios are 10 longs (love) vs. 10 shorts (hate)….

This is down from ~75% on the heels of our previous analysis, given the relatively run-up in prices. We run this for both Brent and WTI (respective front months) and divide it into four scenarios…

We’ve received exactly zero inbound questions on the ABS market this year, which is funny because we literally just highlighted it post the EIC conference (see notes online). If Devon (DVN) is seriously weighing an…

…at least based on our estimates (full math & updated scenarios within)… plenty of debates bubbling to the top between oil bulls & bears. Read On. Within we cover: Major newsflow since Friday’s (5-25-2026) close…

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they…

We were long crude into today’s selloff, we lost real money on the Iranian TV ‘MOU’ headline, and we added to the position into the weakness – not because we enjoy the pain, but because…

We put together a detailed table within highlighting: 1) Supposed MOU terms (11 total); 2) What each actually does; 3) Relative Winner (U.S. vs. Iran); and 4) Oil-market impact. The table format is the easiest…