Our Research

Oil is down ~6% from Friday’s electronic close (on decentralized exchanges that trade 24/7) as traders pivot from ‘bombs away’ (ripped into electronic close on Friday) to ‘talks are back on,‘ after POTUS scrapped strikes…

In early May, we published our first look at implied petrol demand destruction via taking a closer look at consumer spending habits (Iran, Higher Oil and the Sequencing of Consumer Demand Destruction) by following the…

Love/Hate Portfolio 15 (LHP15) just closed out as the third-best performing iteration of the year, generating ~520bps over a notably volatile two-week window and bringing the series to ~30% YTD (see table below). Exact position…

Just when we thought we got away, natural gas comes and pulls us back in. With Henry Hub hovering near multi‑year lows, the real story isn’t about calling an exact price. It’s about the volatility…

In our shorthand, celery is the gas molecule and the dip is the system around it. The molecule in the ground is necessary but not what creates most of the value on its own. The…

Both WTI and Brent are indicated down ~6% on decentralized exchanges as of Sunday afternoon. These aren’t a perfect 1:1 read on CME, but they’re a pretty good directional tell ahead of electronic trading tonight…

Thank you to everyone who joined us last week for our extremely timely call on global oil and products market featuring Wall Street Energy legend Doug Terreson. Our webinar went well beyond standard oil‑macro talking…

Full position details within. We will close this one next Friday… I had a bad feeling about the FRMI short last week, but we don’t mess with the quantitative process. The SEI short was controversial…

As Brent is flirting with ~$100, dual chokepoints emerging in Hormuz and the Red Sea, and Brent time-spreads back near their war‑spike highs, we thought it would be helpful to share how we’re currently positioned,…

According to our latest TSCG 2H’26 M&A Outlook survey, a wall of money is lining up behind energy (and utility) deal‑making and respondents are surprisingly aligned(ish) on where the real fireworks could be. In this…

Natural gas, which we admittedly have not spent a ton of time on because oil just offers much better vol(atility) currently (we almost picked up some front month HH sub ~$2.80 but it never got…

…as it (TRGP) emerged as *THE* undisputed Top Long into 2H’2026. Kind of like the ‘Madden’ cover… HAL reported this am (getting sold pre-market at the time of this writing) and showed up as a…

…It’s not great. Through 7-20-2026, our model portfolio is up a disappointing ~300bps since early January. The MPC/ CVE and DINO shorts have been absolute disasters, partially offset by our DK and PARR longs (the…

…we are not making any adjustments to our ‘secret sauce.’ Recall this is a purely sentiment (not fundamentally) based short-term long-short book (10 each). We will close this one in two weeks on August 3rd….

all data as of ~8AM ET. Full caveat – this may all change by the time markets open at 18:00 ET later today. If you have not already, please sign up for our proprietary call…