Our Research

We will initiate Love/ Hate Portfolio 15 (LHP15) over the weekend. Since July 2nd, LHP14 was able to generate ~410bps, which brings our cumulative Love/ Hate Portfolio return to ~24% since the beginning of the…

WMB’s recent deal announcement sparked a ton of conversations with investors across the capital structure, especially around what this means for AI power, balance-sheet flexibility, and how these projects are actually being financed. See our…

We go off the honor system here – if you fill it out (subscriber or not) we will send you the full results. 100% anonymous and works on all mobile devices. Will have results out…

…in half versus Friday. Key Take: Net‑net, options have caught up with reality but not fully, in our view. The market has finally halved its ‘normalization by mid‑Aug’ bet, yet we still believe it’s overpaying…

We caught up with WMB earlier today. Below is our question list. We work those into our detailed report within. As always, happy to chat! Williams (WMB; Long in Model Portfolio) just turned five undeveloped…

Quick follow-up to our note from two weeks ago as it spurred quite a few discussions (and media interviews) on the natural gas market (This is Why (Gassy) E&Ps Can’t Own Nice Things) Natural gas…

…at three total vessels. We track this daily by vessel type (tanker/ dry cargo/ container/ bulk/ general cargo) and direction (inbound and outbound). We believe this data might be underestimating dark transits but is still…

More fireworks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. See our commentary within as well as real-time commodity marks (as of noon ET). Obviously, these remain moving targets ahead of the electronic open at…

…so this one was odd on the timing side because we didn’t push it out until Wednesday am. We usually try to stick to a strict two-week rule as our back-tests shows those are the…

We are closer to ~17% in our probability matrix (Read On). We use September WTI options (Aug-17th 2026 expiry) as our key inputs (not the front). Our updated five scenario probability and pricing analysis published…

Both Brent & WTI marks screen too high to us – at least at first glance. We ran these through various models. But maybe we have just been conditioned to buy into the massive ‘oil…

Within, please find our latest analysis of Texas activity by sub-basin, based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission. We track this data monthly and have done so for several years, Barnett really stuck out…

…yes, I know, two days late as we were on the road and had some technical issues w/ the massive data file we use to construct this. In any case – will be interesting to…

Hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend. I personally learned a lot – including the below. Never occurred to me one should not randomly feed alligators by hand. Luckily the stick figure schematic clears it…

Love/ Hate 14 (LHP14) will be out on Monday. Biggest losers in LHP13 were Long LBRT (-12.5%) Long NE (-8.9%) Long HPK (-6.7%) Short IDA (-8.6%) Short PAA (-5.5%) The LBRT/ NE/ and HPK Longs…