Our Research

…versus Friday’s electronic close. Details within. Please ping us with any questions. Have a nice Labor Day Holiday! Timm What happened since Friday Oil is up roughly 0.9% in weekend decentralized trading after the Hormuz…

First losing week since April *but* we still have another one to go. This one closes next Friday, September 11th. Long side (10 positions) was up ~30bps but the Short book was down ~250bps for…

…specifically around regulatory mechanics of a Utility take-private (specifically around our ‘ring-fence’ scenario; Read On)…so naturally we went looking for real-world precedents and ended up with four that make some sense, spanning two decades and…

KKR’s ~$42.50 takeout chatter (per the WSJ) reads to us as an opening bid, not a finish line (as we discussed before; see below), and to be clear, it is still just chatter, not a…

DEC just announced its largest deal in 25 years: ~$1.8bn for Birch’s Permian PDP assets, funded almost entirely with a ~$1.5bn Carlyle ABS rather than equity. The initial math ties out fine: ~3.3x EBITDA, ~90%…

This analysis is all about EPD. As a side note, all of our shells are set up the same way, obviously adjusted for company-specific nuances. We use consensus estimates (Bloomberg) to stay unbiased. 10-year exit….

…now that we have your attention… We built the real take-private math anyway, on WMB and three of its large-cap pipeline peers (OKE, KMI, TRGP), same 10-year hold, same leverage-sized-to-credit-quality discipline, same Year-5 leveraged recap,…

Going for ten portfolios in a row w/ a positive return… Full position details within. 10 longs/ 10 shorts. Timm Love/ Hate Portfolio 18 Thank you for reading! Timm

Ping us for questions. On management’s own stated FCF/ share definition, our model still shows dilution the whole way out, just a narrower gap than before. We walk through why that gap exists, and why…

We’re going to admit something: This note made us a little sad to write. We keep hoping for the mega-merger or massive take-private (and we still believe those are on deck – with some caveats;…

We’ve fielded a version of the same question from nearly every client since today’s earlier OKE announcement (Apollo Creed(it): OKE Adds a New Corner Person in the Midland Basin…): How does this compare to the…

source: The Internet So I asked AI to come up with a fitting graphic for this deal and this is literally one of the worst images I have seen and likely consumed 10,000 gallons of…

Please see within for your weekly news summary. Oil markets remain largely unchanged from Friday’s electronic close – as do Natural Gas (HH) marks. Full details within. Timm Weekend Commodity Marks (08-30-2026 ~12:00 ET) General…

KKR’s reported $42.50/share approach to UGI appears credible, but we believe it is more likely an opening price than a finish line (if the report is even true – though the WSJ has a generally…

…which is massively outperforming our prior actively managed, much more labor intensive, fundamentally based Model Portfolio (We closed this Model Portfolio III on August 23rd: Closing Model Portfolio III After a Disappointing ~190 bps Return:…