Our Research

First instinct, who cares? *BUT* this does fit our Energy M&A thesis. Btw, this one was not on our offical 2H’26 M&A Outlook survey results, which can be found here: Mergerpalooza: Your 2H’26 Energy M&A…

Happy Sunday from a rainy Midwest. I have some good news to share to kick this off… After thinking our team came in dead last at my buddy’s ‘member/ guest’ in Chicago, we did, in…

Two days ago we wrote that the leaked ~$5bn for Seneca screened low (we believe there is no way management would sell at that price given current fundamentals) and that the structure, not the price,…

…like in a bad way for our short book. Shares ripped ~14% this week. Read On. Long story short, we are basically flat half-way through the Love/ Hate Portfolio 19 (LHP19) run time at +10bps,…

GFL Environmental (GFL; N/R), one of North America’s largest waste and environmental services companies, has quietly become one of the more interesting take-private stories in the sector. Back in July, the company disclosed unsolicited interest…

According to a Reuters article from yesterday, Seneca (E&P) and select associated infrastructure are up for sale as a variety of strategic initiatives are under review, valuing the assets at ~$5bn. While we do not…

Effective immediately. Closing marks 9-15-2026. See within. Timm We’re long TLN and short DUK because we believe TLN is the cheaper, more direct way to own the AI power demand boom (contracted nuclear plus a…

Love/ Hate Portfolio 19 launched today, and in our view this is one of the more aggressively repositioned book we have run recently. Some of our best performing names from LHP18 just flipped sides, and…

This is a detailed follow up to our initial ‘teaser’ note from last night (Blackstone’s (BX; N/R) Tallgrass (Private) Unbundled: What’s Left Once Pony Express Rides Off). This note pulls together everything we’ve built on…

In our view, Blackstone’s ~$2.55bn sale of Tallgrass’s crude business to Enbridge isn’t just a divestiture, it’s a hard reset of what Tallgrass actually is. We spent all of today (long story, we got stuck…

August flips July’s script. Physical execution (wells and completions) pulled back hard across nearly every basin, while the permit book firmed for the first time in three months, the first real sign of stabilization since…

…well, let’s see what actually happens… Brent & WTI up an implied ~150bps in weekend trading (as of ~12:30 PM) versus Friday’s electronic close, as the Kingdom’s East-West line stays offline and a confirmed U.S.-Iran…

since inception on Aug-31 2026. This one was a nail-biter for a ~310bps two-week Return… We flipped it in the final week. Last Friday’s Haftime Report had LHP18 down -230bps, our first losing week since…

…to our list of hypothetical purchasers. Recall in our most recent note (Kinetik Holdings (KNTK; N/R): Framing a Potential Buyer Universe and a Hypothetical LBO For Good Measure (Full Models Available) we had identified EPD/…

This is a tailored follow-up to our inital KNTK M&A note published in November 2025, which can be accessed here: KNTK: Our Analysis Reveals Four Highly Strategic & Accretive Buyers (Others Possible). Please note these…