Our Research


May 9, 2026

Closing Love/Hate Portfolio 9 (LHP) For a ~90bps Grind Higher in Volatile Two Weeks

By Timm Schneider

A few key observations Flipping FRMI/ SEDG/ and SOC to Shorts from Longs in the prior Love/ Hate portfolio worked out well (+4.4%/ +10%/ +5.3%, respectively). APC (NOT Anadarko Petroleum) turned out to be a…

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May 3, 2026

Oil Dumping (~17:00 ET) on ‘Project Freedom’ Announcement… What Happened Over the Weekend?

By Timm Schneider

Quick update since our Saturday evening note (This Weekend’s News Flow *Had* Been Eerily Quiet…). The short version: The paperwork is flying, the rhetoric is loud, and our S1 (War at the Chokepoint: Our (Updated)…

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May 3, 2026

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending May 3rd 2026

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they…

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May 2, 2026

This Weekend’s News Flow *Had* Been Eerily Quiet…

By Timm Schneider

with respect to the Iran conflict. Until news of a new Iranian 14-point proposal and a POTUS post on Truth Social just now (see within). As we await the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby,…

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May 2, 2026

Iran, Higher Oil and the Sequencing of Consumer Demand Destruction

By Timm Schneider

What is current demand destruction across the energy (and broader economic) value chain on the heels of surging commodity prices due to the Iran situation? That is one of the most frequent questions we have…

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April 29, 2026

Easy, Peasy, What Feels ‘Squeezy?’ Real-Time Short Interest Analysis for ~200 Issuers

By Timm Schneider

Within, we provide real-time short interest for ~200 issuers across: 1) Midstream & Energy Infrastructure; 2) Clean Tech & Alternative Energy; 3) E&Ps; 4) Integrateds/ Majors & Refiners; 5) Global Oilfield Services & Equipment; 6)…

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April 28, 2026

DVN/CTRA: Kimmeridge Just Raised the Bar for Act II; The Commandatore is on His Way…

By Timm Schneider

Please see Kimmeridge’s official letter from this am: “Time for Action”: Kimmeridge Releases Letter to the Future Board of Devon Energy source: The Internet On the Opera reference (at the risk of being overly dramatic…

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April 28, 2026

OPEC… Minus One: What Happens When Abu Dhabi ‘Unfriends’ the Cartel

By Timm Schneider

Of course, we can’t say for sure… BUT… A founding OPEC member just walked away in the middle of the worst supply shock in years. On May 1, the UAE will no longer be bound…

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April 28, 2026

We Had Two AI Engines Run Daily Brent & WTI Forecasts Through End‑May Assuming the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed

By Timm Schneider

The output is quite interesting. See the respective charts within. We have been feeding these engines with all available information since the beginning of the Iran conflict in late February (prompts literally take minutes to…

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April 27, 2026

Loonies, Timmy’s, and Hydrocarbons: Shell’s Canada Pivot (Would have preferred BP, oh well)

By Timm Schneider

…But here are some reads on the deal. Btw SHEL for ARX was *NOT* on our 2026 M&A Bingo Card (see within). SHEL for BP – in fact – was (is). First your Canada trivia…

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April 27, 2026

War at the Chokepoint: Our (Updated) 9‑Path ‘SOH’ Game Theory Map for Brent & WTI

By Timm Schneider

Happy Monday – We just went through all of the weekend news (as of ~7AM Monday AM) and are providing our updated game theoretical approach to the situation. We narrow this down to two players…

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April 25, 2026

Initiating Love/Hate Portfolio 9 (LHP9): Top Two Longs from Last Week (LHP8) Are Now Shorts…

By Timm Schneider

Take a look at the new positions inside. 10 Longs, 10 Shorts. Sentiment driven. We are a little worried about the nyumber one ‘most hated’ – feels ‘squeezy,’ but we don’t mess with these portfolios…

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April 24, 2026

Closing Love/ Hate Portfolio 8 (LHP8) for a Marginal Loss

By Timm Schneider

Love/ Hate Portfolio 8 (LHP8) generated median net loss of ~12bps since inception on April 4-10-2026. A few clear rotations. LHP9 will be out over the weekend – we have the positions ready. This will…

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April 23, 2026

‘Our hypothesis is [that] the paper market is being manipulated…

By Timm Schneider

…This will likely lead to an even worse supply and demand imbalance and higher prices in the medium term (next 12 months)’ – This is a quote (not necessarily our view) from the most recent…

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