Our Research


February 19, 2025

Since We Have Consensus Estimates Now… Here is 1) XOM for VG; and 2) EXE for VG from our 2025 M&A Outlook Survey (More for Fun)

By Timm Schneider

The bifurcated share structure at VG makes it a tough takeout target if it does not want to be acquired. That said, our most recent Energy Infrastructure outlook survey had some voters pick VG as…

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February 19, 2025

Venture Global (VG): Plaquemines Hits Record 1.6+bcf/d; MTM our Model and Framing Consensus Post Sell-Side Initiation Wave

By Timm Schneider

~15 brokers initiated on Venture Global (VG) yesterday as the mandatory post-IPO research embargo period expired. Target prices range from ~$16 on the low end to ~$29 on the high-end, with a Long (Buy) bias….

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February 18, 2025

FANG for Double Eagle IV: Investor Feedback and Broader M&A ‘Reshuffling.’ Good Thing We Just Published a Comprehensive 2025 Upstream M&A Outlook…

By Timm Schneider

Following the announcement of Diamondback Energy’s (FANG) $4.1 billion acquisition of 40,000 net acres and ~27,000 boepd production from Double Eagle IV, investor reactions have been mixed, with many questioning the valuation, strategic fit, and long-term…

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February 17, 2025

2025 M&A Outlook (Part 3): Infrastructure’s Dominance in Energy Is Undeniable…

By Timm Schneider

The potential M&A landscape in energy infrastructure is heating up, and our latest proprietary 2025 M&A Outlook Survey (Part 3) delivers the most intriguing deal combinations – straight from our survey takers. No offense to…

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February 16, 2025

A Banker’s Playground: Upstream & OFS M&A Set for a 2025 Deal Frenzy (Survey Part 2)…

By Timm Schneider

…if one were to go on our proprietary M&A survey! Thx again to all who responded. Yesterday we published Part 1 of our proprietary 2025 Energy sector M&A Outlook survey, highlighting our respondent’s highest conviction…

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February 16, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 16th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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February 15, 2025

The Highest Conviction Energy M&A Transactions for 2025

By Timm Schneider

…according to our proprietary 2025 Energy M&A Outlook survey. Thanks to all who participated. There are 12 transactions across Upstream, Midstream, and Services. We are breaking the survey down into two parts. In Part 1,…

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February 13, 2025

We Expected a Firestorm on Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Elliott. Instead, We Got… Nada Nada Limonada

By Timm Schneider

Our note from earlier in the week (Read on) set a TSCG (The Schneider Capital Group) readership record of well over 3,000 readers in the first 24 hours. We have some thoughts within… To refresh,…

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February 12, 2025

Big Mood Shift in Energy: Refiners & Integrateds Stumble, Midstream Gains Favor

By Timm Schneider

Please see withing for ‘Less Hated’ and ‘More Hated’ equities w/w… We changed it from ‘Most Loved’ and ‘Most Hated.’ It seemed too aggressive. Within, we share with you real-time 1) Current Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 2)…

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February 12, 2025

Energy Transfer (ET): How Will Investors React to Higher Than Expected Growth Capex?

By Timm Schneider

Please see within for a quick summary of the Q4 earnings call and a collection of ‘notable quotables.’ We have received most questions on 2025 capex guide so far (which was above consensus). Will investors…

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February 12, 2025

Sunoco LP (SUN): ‘Notable Quotables’ from the Q4 Earnings Call

By Timm Schneider

full details within on: 1) General Outlook and Growth Strategy; 2) Fuel Distribution and Retail Outlook; 3) Pipeline and Terminal Operations; 4) M&A and International Expansion; and 5) Market Trends and Industry Outlook. Happy to…

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February 11, 2025

Dismantling Phillips 66 (PSX): Activist Play or Value Creation?

By Timm Schneider

…Our initial thoughts on Elliott’s ~50-page slide deck and proposal to unlock value at PSX. Link to the dedicated ‘Streamline 66’ website: Streamline66 | Elliott Management Leading with the Conclusion: PSX’s (Midstream) separation is not…

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February 11, 2025

Topical Today: 1) Torque in the Venture Global (VG) Model; 2) Activism in Energy

By Timm Schneider

please see within for some initial thoughts. We had pointed out the leverage in VG’s business model (for better or for worse – the sword cuts both ways) in several previous notes. We published a…

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February 11, 2025

Natural Gas: Weather Bulls Push Front Month Above $3.50 (Highest Since Jan-23). VG’s Plaquemines Plant Hits ~1.5bcf/d (new record)

By Timm Schneider

Natural Gas Futures have had a bullish start to February, currently trading at ~$3.55/mmbtu (NG1) versus a recent bottom (for the March contract) of ~$3/mmbtu on Jan-31. We just put a small-short position on at…

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February 10, 2025

2025 M&A Outlook Survey Shows Clear Preferences for Who Should be Buying and Selling…

By Timm Schneider

We will keep the survey open through tomorrow post-close. Within we show ~100 M&A transactions that survey takers highlighted so far, sorted by 1) Acquiror; and by 2) Target. We have combined 1) ‘should happen;’…

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