Our Research


January 24, 2026

Survey Portfolio Takes a Beating as Short Book Loses ~$1.3mm on the Week

By Timm Schneider

The survey portfolio is an amalgamation of 39 longs and 27 shorts (we show six neutrals for context), all sized directly off investor conviction from our 2026 Energy & Utility Outlook survey (link). We ‘funded’…

Read More >>

January 23, 2026

Love/Hate Portfolio II (LP2) Grinds Out ~70bps; Long SMR vs. Short OKLO Best Single Pair +560bps

By Timm Schneider

The Love/Hate portfolios are short‑term, sentiment‑driven (two‑week horizon) books built off real‑time shares‑on‑loan analytics: 10 longs vs. 10 shorts, with full position and performance detail in the note. We initiated LP2 on January 16th. Within we…

Read More >>

January 23, 2026

Timm-inator 2: Market Judgment Day – Framing Recent Conversations and Market Chatter

By Timm Schneider

Over the last week we’ve had a pretty remarkable cross‑section of conversations with Long‑only, Hedge fund, and strategic clients across upstream, Oilfield Services, Midstream, LNG, and Utilities. Natural Gas (volatility and how to trade it)…

Read More >>

January 21, 2026

Natural Gas: Closing our NG2 (Mar-26) Long Options Position

By Timm Schneider

This morning we closed out our NG2 (Mar-26) $3.60 Calls (Feb-24 expiry) which we initially put on Friday, January 9th, for a total return of ~420%. We are now ‘only’ down ~70% when factoring in…

Read More >>

January 20, 2026

Energy Money Isn’t Monolithic: Our Proprietary Investor- Type Analysis Highlights 2026 Sub-Sector Favorites (and Dislikes)

By Timm Schneider

Energy positioning for 2026 is far from one‑size‑fits‑all- and this report shows it in a way no one else does. This is on the heels of our proprietary 2026 Energy & Utility Outlook Survey results…

Read More >>

January 19, 2026

CLR (Private): Zero Rigs in the Bakken, Zero(ish) Macro Impact – But Will It Finally Give Other Upstream CEOs Cover to Do ‘The Right Thing’?

By Timm Schneider

Everyone is buzzing about Harold Hamm’s talk of taking CLR to zero rigs in the Bakken, but when we run CLR’s own numbers and Bakken type curves, the impact is still a rounding error on…

Read More >>

January 18, 2026

DVN/ CTRA: The Detailed Accretion/ Dilution Analysis No One Asked For

By Timm Schneider

But we have some downtime ahead of the Bears game… We look at all metrics on a per share basis. 1) Earnings; 2) FCF; and 3) EBITDA. We also solve for combined leverage and back…

Read More >>

January 18, 2026

Welcome to the ‘Gasino:’ Weekend Weather Runs Point to ~7%+ Gap Up (So Far) in Nat Gas

By Timm Schneider

Will it stay that way? Who knows- but we’ll be glued to the weather runs. The biggest impact is obviously on the front months (Cal‑26). As a side note, what really stands out when we…

Read More >>

January 18, 2026

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending January 17th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

Read More >>

January 17, 2026

Survey Portfolio Grinds Out ~$500K (100Bps) of Profit in Week One

By Timm Schneider

The survey portfolio has turned into a pretty entertaining (and profitable – so far) popularity contest. The book is an amalgamation of 39 longs and 27 shorts (we show six neutrals for context), all sized…

Read More >>

January 17, 2026

Initiating ‘Love/Hate’ Portfolio II: Freaks & Favorites (plus a few new features)

By Timm Schneider

‘Love/Hate’ Portfolio II (LHP II) looks very different from the first book (LHP I; closed out last night: Closing ‘Love/Hate’ Portfolio I For a Two-Week Return of ~50bps), which was basically ‘real‑asset pipes and upstream…

Read More >>

January 16, 2026

Closing ‘Love/Hate’ Portfolio I For a Two-Week Return of ~50bps; Initiating Portfolio II Over Weekend

By Timm Schneider

Our initial ‘Love/Hate Portfolio‘ for 2026 fizzled into week two – giving back ~100bps since 01-09-2026 for a total return of ~50bps. As a reminder, our ‘Love/Hate’ portfolios are short-term (two week time horizons have historically generated the best…

Read More >>

January 16, 2026

From Anime to Mcf: Mitsubishi Draws Its Haynesville Story Arc; Signals Continued Foreign Capital Era for U.S. Natural Gas

By Timm Schneider

Mitsubishi’s just-announced acquisition of Aethon’s Haynesville platform (last night) is not ‘just another gas deal’ – it’s a scale, vertically integrated entry into U.S. shale that sits right at the intersection of LNG growth, AI/data‑center…

Read More >>

January 16, 2026

Grid Games: Initial Thoughts on PJM’s (Emergency) AI Backstop Auction

By Timm Schneider

Leaning on a few battle‑scarred PJM veterans in our backyard, we provide a preliminary walk-through of what this ’emergency’ auction could mean for IPPs, utilities, and hyperscalers. Opinions are all over the place on this…

Read More >>

January 15, 2026

‘Can You Split Texas Like This?’ Yes – Here’s the 1‑Mo vs 3‑Mo Avg. Activity View Everyone Wanted (And It’s Extremely Telling)

By Timm Schneider

Within, you’ll find our latest Texas activity report – an expanded, data‑rich version of our recent piece, Texas Ramps Into Year‑End But 3‑Month Activity Trend Signals Slowing Production (Growth?) in 2026. A lot of folks asked…

Read More >>