Our Research


July 27, 2024

Model Portfolio Grinds Out Small Gain Despite Lackluster Debut from New Addition TLN (Long Book) and +ve Sentiment Shifts on TRP and AEP (Both Shorts)

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): EQT (N/R); RRC (N/R); TLN (Long); VST (N/R); BP (N/R); SHEL (N/R); ENPH (N/R); TRP (Short); ET (Long) Key Takes: Our long book pared ~134bps and our short…

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July 26, 2024

Key 1) Upstream; 2) OFS; & 3) Utility/ IPP Combinations & Strategic Initiatives Voted as Likely to Come to Fruition Before Year End…

By Timm Schneider

…according to our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey. Recall we published our Midstream/ Infrastructure results yesterday (link). Respondents also provided some interesting thoughts around assets sales and potential asset swaps versus just vanilla corporate M&A. Companies…

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July 25, 2024

M&A: Key Midstream/ Energy Infrastructure Transactions Y’all Think Will Happen Before Year-End…

By Timm Schneider

thx again to everyone who filled out our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey! Whoever picked ET buying KMI (lol?)… I like the spirit of the mega-deal, but unfortunately this combination would be a train wreck from…

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July 24, 2024

E&P and OFS Equities Likely Became a Source of Funds for Integrateds/ Majors on the Heels of a Broader Risk-Off Rotation. Full SOL Analysis Within

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares that lenders (agent + other) have lent to market participants wanting to ‘short’ a particular security. For our analysis,…

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July 23, 2024

Natural Gas: Initial Takes from RRC; EQT & MTDR Reinforce Our ‘Volume & Volatility Over Price (V^2>P)’ Sector Thesis

By Timm Schneider

See within for initial takes as well as our updated estimates for Thursday’s injection number. Please note at the time of this writing we are 1) Long the OCT-24 NYMEX natural gas contract; and 2)…

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July 23, 2024

Sadly, Our Proprietary 2H’24 Outlook Survey Shows Energy Sector Performance Thru Year-End is Simply a De-Facto Call on 1) Oil Prices; and 2) Fund Flows. Capital Allocation Decisions by Firms Don’t Matter Much (they all know the playbook)

By Timm Schneider

Within we share the commodity and industry focused results of our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey (14 questions total). Once again, thx to the ~150 responses. The make-up of our responders was as follows: 1) ~35%…

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July 22, 2024

ENB & NEP Emerge as Most Hated Stocks into 2H’24: Proprietary Outlook Survey (Part 1)

By Timm Schneider

Thx for the ~150 responses! In order to keep the information more digestible, we have separated our proprietary 2H’24 Outlook survey into three parts. Part 1 (details within) focuses on most liked and most disliked…

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July 21, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending July 21th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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July 18, 2024

‘Hurry Up and Wait:’ Kinder Morgan (KMI; N/R) and Liberty Energy (LBRT; N/R) Kicked Off Q2 Earnings Yesterday…

By Timm Schneider

We do not have a horse in the race with either company via our model portfolio. Our larger Midstream Longs are ET (10%); OKE (9%); and LNG (9%). We have a small TRP short at…

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July 17, 2024

Final Sentiment Check Ahead of Q2 using Real-Time Short Interest Data (Active Shares on Loan Utilization)

By Timm Schneider

Most important… please continue to fill out our outlook survey if you have not done so:  TSCG 2024 2H Energy Outlook Survey ***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** We believe the…

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July 17, 2024

Model Portfolio: Adding Talen Energy (TLN) as a Long With a 7% Weight

By Timm Schneider

Effective immediately, we are adding Talen Energy (TLN) as a Long to our model portfolio with a 7% weight. We are reducing our 17% Long weight on ET to 10%. ET remains one of our…

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July 16, 2024

Random sector thoughts into Q2 Earnings Season… (thx to the almost 100 survey respondents already)

By Timm Schneider

There is still time to fill out our 2024 2H Outlook Survey: SURVEY LINK (PLEASE FILL OUT) Kinder Morgan kicks off Energy Earnings Season on Wednesday July 18th. Putting together a few one-liners (everyone likes…

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July 14, 2024

Our ‘Great Bakken Consolidation’ Theme, Part 2: What Would a Hypothetical Acquisition of Continental Resources (Private) Look Like?

By Timm Schneider

…by DVN (Long; 6% weight in model portfolio). *But* we can run this for any potential acquirer as we have put together a full CLR operating model. Let us know if you would like us…

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July 14, 2024

Model Portfolio: All of Our Shorts Were Down this Week; Likely Volatile Week of Trading Ahead (Ping us if you want to discuss set-up before tomorrow’s open)

By Timm Schneider

***Most important*** If you have not filled our our 2H’24 Outlook Energy & Utility Outlook survey, please do so. Link to survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/TL6V8BL Most discussed stocks this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): Refiners; KMI (N/R); WMB…

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July 13, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending July 14th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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