Our Research


September 2, 2024

Model Portfolio Total Return ~17.7% ahead of Fall Conference Season (lot of questions around potential deal announcements next week)

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks and topics this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): OKE (Long); ENLC; WMB; KMI; DVN; OVV; TLN; RRC; Natural Gas Outlook; Hypothetical M&A scenarios. We have also had a lot of investor discussions around…

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September 1, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending Sep 1st 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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September 1, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending Sep 1st 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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August 31, 2024

Natural Gas: Which Contract(s) to Short? Does it Even #Matterhorn Anymore? Updated End-of-Season Storage Balances

By Timm Schneider

For the prior week, we had estimated a weekly storage injection of 32bcf versus the actual 35bcf reported (identical to last week’s number) this past Thursday. While the injection number was slightly more bearish vs….

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August 30, 2024

Some Labor Day Reading: Will OKE be Able to Maintain a Premium Valuation? Was Medallion a Way for OKE to Get ENLC Uncontested?

By Timm Schneider

The ‘premium valuation’ issue Is a frequent topic that popped up in a plethora of investor conversations following Wednesday’s deal announcement. The Medallion as a ‘package deal’ to get ENLC uncontested is something we conjured…

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August 29, 2024

Effective Immediately, We are Reducing Our ONEOK (OKE) Long Weight in the Model Portfolio to 3% from 8%

By Timm Schneider

We are marking the position reduction at an intra-day price (~9:45AM) of $88.65. OKE has been one of the best performers in the portfolio since inception on January 10th. We estimate total return of ~30%….

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August 29, 2024

Effective Immediately, We are Reducing Our ONEOK (OKE) Long Weight in the Model Portfolio to 3% from 8%

By Timm Schneider

We are marking the position reduction at an intra-day price (~9:45AM) of $88.65. OKE has been one of the best performers in the portfolio since inception on January 10th. We estimate total return of ~30%….

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August 29, 2024

Full ‘OKE for ENLC’ Accretion/ Dilution Analysis & Initial Deal Feedback/ Thoughts/ Questions Within. Would Have Loved OKE for PAA, But Hey…

By Timm Schneider

Key Takes: Initial deal math checks out but implies more accretion on the ENLC side of things vs. Medallion (Read On). Several questions on read-throughs for OKE’s base business in the Bakken. Could someone come…

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August 28, 2024

Energy Sentiment Check Using Real-Time Short Interest Shows Sentiment Improving Across *ALL* Energy Subsectors vs. Last Week

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** This is real-time data we receive from our prime broker, not lagged data you see on Bloomberg, FactSet, etc. Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares…

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August 27, 2024

Natural Gas: Updated Storage Balances and Scenarios. We Are Now Long the OCT-24 (T+1) Contract (Embrace the Volatility…)

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a detailed table showing our official TSCG (The Schneider Capital Group) Naturel Gas storage balance forecast through the end of the year (and highlighted end of injection season). We believe the biggest…

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August 27, 2024

Natural Gas: Updated Storage Balances and Scenarios. We Are Now Long the OCT-24 (T+1) Contract (Embrace the Volatility…)

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a detailed table showing our official TSCG (The Schneider Capital Group) Naturel Gas storage balance forecast through the end of the year (and highlighted end of injection season). We believe the biggest…

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August 25, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending Aug 25th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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August 21, 2024

Natural Gas: I Am Arguing w/ Natural Gas (Price) Bulls on a Daily Basis Now… Curve is (Still) Too High

By Timm Schneider

But first: For Tomorrow’s EIA Storage number we are forecasting an injection of ~24Bcf, slightly below consensus estimates calling for a ~25Bcf add. The prior five year average is 41bcf. We have been high the…

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August 21, 2024

Real-Time Short Interest Shows Souring Sentiment on Small Scale Nuclear; Investors Cover Integrated/ Majors/ Refiners; Midstream and OFS (?) Shorts…

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** This is real-time data we receive from our prime broker, not lagged data you see on Bloomberg, FactSet, etc. Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares…

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August 20, 2024

Which Midstream Companies Create Value? One Picture. 10 Seconds… To Read… This Actually Took a While to Put Together

By Timm Schneider

We look at ~21 companies in our coverage universe (in alphabetical order): AM/ ARIS/ CQP/ DTM/ ENB-CA/ ENLC/ EPD ET/ GEL/ HESM/ KMI/ KNTK/ LNG/ MPLX/ OKE/ PAA/ SUN/ TRGP TRP-CA/ WES/ WMB. The below…

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