Our Research


August 19, 2023

U/W PLUG Boosts Model Portfolio to +8% Relative; Updated U/W OKE vs. O/W MMP ‘Pay-Off’ Scenarios (*30 Day-Trade*) Within

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a performance summary of 1) Our model portfolio (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas.  We closed out O/W KMI (+optional WMB/TRPG) vs. U/W TRP &…

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August 17, 2023

The Era of the Super (No Premium) Energy M&A Wave? Revisiting our Sector M&A and Strategic Initiative Thesis…

By Timm Schneider

On the heels of ET’s proposed acquisition of CEQP announced yesterday (link), within we are re-circulating some of our previous thematic pieces on Energy Sector M&A/ Strategic Initiatives. With respect to the ET/ CEQP transaction…

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August 15, 2023

The ‘Death’ of U.S. Shale?! EIA Drilling Productivity Report Signals Another Month of Permian Oil Declines…

By Timm Schneider

Now that we have your attention… much has been written and said recently about the presumed ‘death’ of domestic shale. We won’t attempt to answer that question within this note, but we do believe Q2 Upstream…

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August 14, 2023

Shares on Loan (SOL) Utilization for ~190 Companies: Pre Earnings vs. Today… E&P Largest Increase; OFS Largest Decrease. All Sub-Sectors & Utilities Within

By Timm Schneider

While we generally present this data on a w/w basis, this edition takes a closer look at ‘SOL’ Utilization and respective changes from 7/17/2023 (our pre earnings marker) to today 8/14/2023 (our post earnings marker)…

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August 12, 2023

NEE & DVN Most ‘Disliked’ Out of Earnings; U/W VLO Torpedoes the ‘U/W’ Portfolio… Offset by U/W PLUG

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a performance summary of 1) Our model portfolio (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. We closed out O/W KMI (+optional WMB/TRPG) vs. U/W TRP…

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August 11, 2023

OKE/MMP: Scenario Analysis Implies ‘Pay-Off’ Range from -6% to 20% over next ~45 Days…

By Timm Schneider

…for our recent pair trade idea of Overweight MMP versus Underweight OKE, initiated on 6/30/2023 (link). The trade is currently two percent underwater as shares of OKE have fared better than we expected. We added…

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August 8, 2023

+ve comments from OKE on Natural Gas Storage assets… Upcoming Expert Call

By Timm Schneider

The domestic natural gas storage market continues to reinvent itself from an oversupplied sector that often lacked both attractive 1) intrinsic; and 2) extrinsic value propositions over the past several years.  As storage asset have…

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August 7, 2023

***Reiterating Our U/W OKE vs. O/W MMP & KMI Trade Idea Post OKE Earnings***

By Timm Schneider

OKE reported earnings tonight. A beat & raise. We believe this was expected by the Buy-Side. Adjusted EBITDA (mid) went up ~$100mm and 2023 capex went up $200mm. OKE shares will likely be up on…

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August 6, 2023

***OKE/ MMP Merger Saga Update… (Including Latest SEC Filing from Friday)

By Timm Schneider

Key Takeaway: Looking through all the back and forth we believe this transaction will close following a ‘deal-sweetener’ being paid by OKE in the $3.50 – $7.50 per share range to MMP holders. If the deal…

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August 4, 2023

‘Model Portfolio’ and ‘Trade Ideas:’ OW EOG/ PXD/ LNG & COP Biggest Winners. UW OKE/ PLUG/ VLO Biggest Losers…New Ideas Next Week

By Timm Schneider

What a week… Below is a summary of 1) Our model portfolio performance (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. All data is as of 16:00 of the…

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July 31, 2023

Natural Gas Storage Dynamics & Opportunities: A Virtual Chat w/ Dave Marchese – CEO of Caliche Storage | September 6th | 9AM CST/ 10AM EST

By Timm Schneider

We have a great (virtual) fireside chat coming up focused on all things ‘natural gas storage’ with David Marchese, CEO of Caliche Storage. From the ‘Duck Curve’ to LNG exports and volumes out of the…

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July 30, 2023

TRP’s Liquids Spin Likely Hovering in Purgatory or Worse… TRP is Ripe for Activism…

By Timm Schneider

•••We spent the weekend running through contractual obligations/ re-contracting dynamics and the general business mix of TRP’s new ‘liquids spin-co’••• Key Takeaway: This is not a bad business, and these are not bad assets.  But this…

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July 28, 2023

‘Model Portfolio’ and TSCG ‘Trade Idea’ Performance Through July 28th…

By Timm Schneider

Below is a summary of 1) Our model portfolio performance (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. All data is as of 16:00 of the respective trade…

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July 28, 2023

Some Feedback on the TC Energy (TRP) Spin Announcement… ***Closing our Relative O/W KMI vs. U/W TRP & ENB Strategic Call***

By Timm Schneider

At the time of this writing, shares of TC Energy (TRP) are down ~5% on the heels of the announcement they are spinning the liquids business and the conference call this morning. This is in…

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July 27, 2023

TC Energy Breaks Up Existing Business via Liquids Asset Spin… Stock up ~4% after hours

By Timm Schneider

Interesting announcement from TC Energy post the close tonight. *Call at 8:30AM ET tomorrow* The company will be pursuing a (tax-free for U.S. and Canadian Investors) spin-off of the liquids assets into a separately treaded…

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