Our Research


February 23, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 23rd

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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February 21, 2025

A Few Folks Asked Us for the Full Organic ROCE Data for our Energy Infrastructure Coverage…

By Timm Schneider

…so we present the data within for 21 companies. Average organic ROCE for the group is ~18%. Median ~16%. Implied ‘build’ multiple of ~5.5x. Ping us for methodology. Timm ROCE for our infrastructure coverage on…

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February 21, 2025

Energy Infrastructure: Rethinking Growth & Capital Allocation

By Timm Schneider

In our latest analysis, we dissect 1) organic ROCE; and 2) implied M&A ROCE across our Energy Infrastructure coverage universe. ET’s recent earnings call (see our website for details) marked a paradigm shift – the…

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February 20, 2025

Short-Term Mood Is Souring on 1) VG; 2) SMR; 3) NBR; 4) WTI; 5) EPD; 6) BP; 7) MUR; 8) GPRE; 9) HE; and 10) ED…

By Timm Schneider

Within, we share with you real-time 1) Current Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 2) W-W % Changes in Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 3) Borrow; and 4) Changes in 4-week moving average shares-on-loan utilization for ~200 publicly traded corporates across…

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February 20, 2025

Natural Gas: We Got Caught w/ Our Hand in the Cookie Jar…

By Timm Schneider

…once again. Let us explain: We were able to escape the weekend NG1 short position unscathed due to some favorable weather runs (for beats) but then piled into the NG1 short (too) early on the…

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February 19, 2025

Since We Have Consensus Estimates Now… Here is 1) XOM for VG; and 2) EXE for VG from our 2025 M&A Outlook Survey (More for Fun)

By Timm Schneider

The bifurcated share structure at VG makes it a tough takeout target if it does not want to be acquired. That said, our most recent Energy Infrastructure outlook survey had some voters pick VG as…

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February 19, 2025

Venture Global (VG): Plaquemines Hits Record 1.6+bcf/d; MTM our Model and Framing Consensus Post Sell-Side Initiation Wave

By Timm Schneider

~15 brokers initiated on Venture Global (VG) yesterday as the mandatory post-IPO research embargo period expired. Target prices range from ~$16 on the low end to ~$29 on the high-end, with a Long (Buy) bias….

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February 18, 2025

FANG for Double Eagle IV: Investor Feedback and Broader M&A ‘Reshuffling.’ Good Thing We Just Published a Comprehensive 2025 Upstream M&A Outlook…

By Timm Schneider

Following the announcement of Diamondback Energy’s (FANG) $4.1 billion acquisition of 40,000 net acres and ~27,000 boepd production from Double Eagle IV, investor reactions have been mixed, with many questioning the valuation, strategic fit, and long-term…

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February 17, 2025

2025 M&A Outlook (Part 3): Infrastructure’s Dominance in Energy Is Undeniable…

By Timm Schneider

The potential M&A landscape in energy infrastructure is heating up, and our latest proprietary 2025 M&A Outlook Survey (Part 3) delivers the most intriguing deal combinations – straight from our survey takers. No offense to…

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February 16, 2025

A Banker’s Playground: Upstream & OFS M&A Set for a 2025 Deal Frenzy (Survey Part 2)…

By Timm Schneider

…if one were to go on our proprietary M&A survey! Thx again to all who responded. Yesterday we published Part 1 of our proprietary 2025 Energy sector M&A Outlook survey, highlighting our respondent’s highest conviction…

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February 16, 2025

Your Energy & Utilities News Summary for the Week Ending February 16th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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February 15, 2025

The Highest Conviction Energy M&A Transactions for 2025

By Timm Schneider

…according to our proprietary 2025 Energy M&A Outlook survey. Thanks to all who participated. There are 12 transactions across Upstream, Midstream, and Services. We are breaking the survey down into two parts. In Part 1,…

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February 13, 2025

We Expected a Firestorm on Phillips 66 (PSX) vs. Elliott. Instead, We Got… Nada Nada Limonada

By Timm Schneider

Our note from earlier in the week (Read on) set a TSCG (The Schneider Capital Group) readership record of well over 3,000 readers in the first 24 hours. We have some thoughts within… To refresh,…

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February 12, 2025

Big Mood Shift in Energy: Refiners & Integrateds Stumble, Midstream Gains Favor

By Timm Schneider

Please see withing for ‘Less Hated’ and ‘More Hated’ equities w/w… We changed it from ‘Most Loved’ and ‘Most Hated.’ It seemed too aggressive. Within, we share with you real-time 1) Current Absolute Shares-on-Loan Utilization; 2)…

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February 12, 2025

Energy Transfer (ET): How Will Investors React to Higher Than Expected Growth Capex?

By Timm Schneider

Please see within for a quick summary of the Q4 earnings call and a collection of ‘notable quotables.’ We have received most questions on 2025 capex guide so far (which was above consensus). Will investors…

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