Our Research

As promised, here is Part II of our proprietary 2024 Energy Outlook Survey, focused on the M&A landscape. Recall we published Part I (The composition of our core model portfolio earlier this week: link). We…

We received almost 200 responses to our survey, one of the highest turnouts yet. Thanks to all who filled it out. For those interested in the Super Bowl projections, you can find those on the…

Eagles?! Must be the legacy Sunoco Crowd 🙂 Thx to the ~200 responses! In any case, just a quick note that our proprietary 2024 Outlook Survey has been closed and we are in the final…

…on heels of w/w ‘SOL’ utilization data. Please reach out if you would like to chat on this. Overall notable w/w changes (Active ‘SOL’) utilization: Higher (Bearish – we the caveat shorted shares will need to…

‘Well, We’re Waiting…’ A picture of current market participants anxiously waiting for any type of announcement. Who can name the movie.. No deal yet. But at least I got the Southwestern Ticker (SWN) correct this time…

Quick Sunday night update following yesterday’s note (*LINK*)_ Our survey participation on expected takeout premium of SWX by CHK – or lack thereof – is up to ~135 participants. The implied average weighted takeout price for…

We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include.  Please continue filling out our 2024 Outlook survey. Thx to the…

…$7.25 on a weighted average basis. We have received ~95 responses as of Saturday at ~17:00. This survey is also live on several Social Media platforms and results continue to come in. We will continue to…

Please see our previous notes for additional information: (1. APA/ CPE: And Here I Thought APA May Have Had a Chance to Finish in the Green Today…; and 2. Early Feedback on ‘APA for CPE’…

…but the call was kind of ‘meh’. Too many subjective statements around inventory depth (‘great’ and ‘deep’ and ‘accretive’ etc) and future production plans. Investment banking teams, maybe next time prep your management teams ahead…

First Week of 2024, First Deal. APA for CPE. All equity deal and implied ~15% premium for CPE based on closing prices as of January 3rd. APA down ~4.85% pre-market with CPE up ~5.05. Call…

Overall notable w/w changes (Active ‘SOL’) utilization: Higher (Bearish): TRP/ SUN/ UAN/ PAA/ MAXN/ CPE/ TTE/ RNGR/ NRG/ PCG Lower (Bullish): TELL/ ENLC/ STEM/ NPWR/ SPWR/ VTLE/ CVI/ NBR/ SDRL/ HE **Excel Data for ~200 Corporates + Historical…

Happy New Year All! We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include. We realize this is a lot of…

Sharing some general feedback within and tying up some of the moving pieces around the ‘Bull vs. Bear’ debate. TRGP is in a position to potentially increase FCF by~400% from 2023E to 2025E versus large…

Our one pager… Own Integrateds/ Majors. I’m not bullish oil. I know I will get some hate mail here but there will be a decent amount of incremental South American production. OPEC has a large spare…