Our Research


August 27, 2023

Introducing ‘Sunday Funday’ Energy News Catch-Up…

By Timm Schneider

Happy Sunday –  Hope you are having a nice weekend. With the end of summer rapidly approaching, we thought it would be timely to roll out a simple product to help you get caught up with…

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August 26, 2023

Model Portfolio & Trade Performance: U/W PLUG Remains Biggest Gainer; U/W OKE vs. O/W MMP Back to Even; Ton of Question on Our ‘Five Questions E-mail’…

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a performance summary of 1) Our model portfolio (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas.  We closed out O/W KMI (+optional WMB/TRPG) vs. U/W TRP &…

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August 24, 2023

Five questions…

By Timm Schneider

…We have been getting recently. Going to Guns N’ Roses concert today at Wrigley in what is likely hottest day in a decade in Chicago so may not make it BUT here you go… Why…

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August 23, 2023

(More) Shots Fired… How to Hedge an OKE/ MMP Deal Break (*Which is an unlikely scenario, in our view*)

By Timm Schneider

***For those wanting to reduce some risk exposure around a potential OKE/ MMP deal break (not our base case) we like: 1) U/W OKE vs. 2) O/W MMP (~50% sized) + O/W KNTK (~40% sized) +…

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August 22, 2023

‘That Merger Fest Is Not Real’ (TMFINR)… Is It!? PLUS: ‘Timm, Send Us Your Deal Sheet’ & Latest Thoughts on Strategic Initiatives (PR/ ESTE)

By Timm Schneider

That ‘Merger Fest,’ is, in fact, very real. And to be sure, despite varying opinions depending on transaction, we are not complaining. Extensive M&A activity and Strategic Initiatives had been one of our key investment…

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August 21, 2023

‘SOL’ Mondays: HE/ GEL/ WES/ AMTX/ FLNC/ TS/ UAN/ CEQP/ NS/ ENB/ EQNR Show Large(st) Moves in W/W % utilization (Full company details within)

By Timm Schneider

***Excel Data Available Upon Request*** Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares that lenders (agent + other) have lent to market participants wanting to ‘short’ a particular security. Generally speaking ‘utilization’ is the ratio of demand-to-supply…

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August 20, 2023

If You Are Heading to Las Vegas This Week… Just Remember, You Can’t Lose What You Don’t Put in the Middle…

By Timm Schneider

But you can’t win much either! For your Sunday night reading, we are including our top three most read notes so far for August. We are also working on a new trade idea that would…

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August 19, 2023

U/W PLUG Boosts Model Portfolio to +8% Relative; Updated U/W OKE vs. O/W MMP ‘Pay-Off’ Scenarios (*30 Day-Trade*) Within

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a performance summary of 1) Our model portfolio (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas.  We closed out O/W KMI (+optional WMB/TRPG) vs. U/W TRP &…

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August 17, 2023

The Era of the Super (No Premium) Energy M&A Wave? Revisiting our Sector M&A and Strategic Initiative Thesis…

By Timm Schneider

On the heels of ET’s proposed acquisition of CEQP announced yesterday (link), within we are re-circulating some of our previous thematic pieces on Energy Sector M&A/ Strategic Initiatives. With respect to the ET/ CEQP transaction…

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August 15, 2023

The ‘Death’ of U.S. Shale?! EIA Drilling Productivity Report Signals Another Month of Permian Oil Declines…

By Timm Schneider

Now that we have your attention… much has been written and said recently about the presumed ‘death’ of domestic shale. We won’t attempt to answer that question within this note, but we do believe Q2 Upstream…

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August 14, 2023

Shares on Loan (SOL) Utilization for ~190 Companies: Pre Earnings vs. Today… E&P Largest Increase; OFS Largest Decrease. All Sub-Sectors & Utilities Within

By Timm Schneider

While we generally present this data on a w/w basis, this edition takes a closer look at ‘SOL’ Utilization and respective changes from 7/17/2023 (our pre earnings marker) to today 8/14/2023 (our post earnings marker)…

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August 12, 2023

NEE & DVN Most ‘Disliked’ Out of Earnings; U/W VLO Torpedoes the ‘U/W’ Portfolio… Offset by U/W PLUG

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a performance summary of 1) Our model portfolio (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. We closed out O/W KMI (+optional WMB/TRPG) vs. U/W TRP…

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August 11, 2023

OKE/MMP: Scenario Analysis Implies ‘Pay-Off’ Range from -6% to 20% over next ~45 Days…

By Timm Schneider

…for our recent pair trade idea of Overweight MMP versus Underweight OKE, initiated on 6/30/2023 (link). The trade is currently two percent underwater as shares of OKE have fared better than we expected. We added…

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August 8, 2023

+ve comments from OKE on Natural Gas Storage assets… Upcoming Expert Call

By Timm Schneider

The domestic natural gas storage market continues to reinvent itself from an oversupplied sector that often lacked both attractive 1) intrinsic; and 2) extrinsic value propositions over the past several years.  As storage asset have…

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August 7, 2023

***Reiterating Our U/W OKE vs. O/W MMP & KMI Trade Idea Post OKE Earnings***

By Timm Schneider

OKE reported earnings tonight. A beat & raise. We believe this was expected by the Buy-Side. Adjusted EBITDA (mid) went up ~$100mm and 2023 capex went up $200mm. OKE shares will likely be up on…

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