Our Research


March 5, 2024

Sentiment Shift to ‘First’ from ‘Worst’ for OFS; Midstream Improved. E&P Slightly Worse. Updated Short Interest (‘SOL’) Analysis.

By Timm Schneider

Please let us know if you would like to discuss some of the relative set-ups. Please note at the time of writing, the author holds: 1) a ‘long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource…

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March 1, 2024

Effective Immediately, We are Placing Southern Company (SO) Under Portfolio Review. Updated Return Metrics Within

By Timm Schneider

At the time of writing, the author currently holds a ‘1) long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource Partners L.P.; 2) a ‘long’ position in shares of Citigroup (C); and… no exposure to natural gas…

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February 29, 2024

Quantifying the Potential Impact of Texas Panhandle Wildfires on Oil/Gas & Power Production

By Timm Schneider

First of, our thoughts go out to all of those impacted by this tragedy. We have not received a lot of media coverage of the incident up here in the Northeast, so we have had…

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February 27, 2024

With Earnings Almost Over, Investor Sentiment Has Grown Most Bearish Oilfield Services vs. Last Week…

By Timm Schneider

Please let us know if you would like to discuss some of the relative set-ups. Please note at the time of writing, the author holds: 1) a ‘long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource…

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February 27, 2024

Remember Oneok (OKE; Model Portfolio Long) Tends to Trade with the Earnings Call (Today 11AM ET) + Some Implicatoins from the Continental Resources 10-K

By Timm Schneider

OKE reported earnings and rolled out 2024 guidance post close last night. EBITDA guide of ~$6.1bn was in-line with consensus. Total capex came in higher than expected (~8%), with an upside bias if additional projects get…

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February 26, 2024

CVX/ HES/ XOM: Initial Feedback on the Guyana Debacle… (and – unrelated – still working on OKE as well as Continental 10-K Takes)

By Timm Schneider

As a follow up to our initial email from earlier (link) highlighting some language from CVX’s S-4 filing, we are further highlighting some initial feedback we have received on the situation. Please keep ideas coming! Here…

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February 25, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending February 25th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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February 24, 2024

What Does One Do in Central PA?!… And Model Portfolio Has Big Week +10% (+~7% vs. XLE)

By Timm Schneider

Other than losing copious amounts of money trading levered gas futures on leverage, I spend most of my time thinking about Energy markets, and when it gets warm(er) out, some golf. BUT since I live…

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February 23, 2024

We received questions on our ‘WMB Should Buy GEL’ comment from yesterday…

By Timm Schneider

Shares of GEL are up ~5.5% at the time of this writing, outperforming the AMLP index by ~525bps. Is it because of our comment? No idea (Nor do we care). But we figured it warranted…

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February 22, 2024

Top Questions from the Week (so far…) and My Crazy Out-the-box M&A Call (WMB Should Buy GEL)

By Timm Schneider

I am over the nat gas trading fiasco from yesterday. Win some, Lose some. I got ‘Boiled’ out today so it’s a net wash. I think I need a less volatile commodity to day trade. Can…

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February 21, 2024

So I Got My Wings Clipped Today… (~3% of My Net Worth)

By Timm Schneider

…Going short natural gas after closing my long way too early post close last night. All on leverage. And on a 2x underlying (either inverse or direct) ETF. I closed the position at a loss…

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February 20, 2024

Natural Gas Bears Get Caught on the Wrong Side Post Close… But Our Bias is Not Bullish

By Timm Schneider

…on massive CHK production cut. Read On. ***We closed our levered long speculative gas position (we don’t own the physical commodity, we play this via the levered 2x ETF BOIL on the ‘long’ side and…

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February 20, 2024

OXY Exploring WES Stake Sale: A Few Quick Thoughts. MPLX & WMB Screen as Most Accretive Buyers (Excl. ENB/ OKE/ TRP)

By Timm Schneider

Units of WES are up ~6.5% on the news at the time of this writing… and actually currently halted (at the risk of this note coming out post some sort of news release). Reuters article:…

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February 20, 2024

Shares-on-Loan (SOL) Utilization Implies Sentiment Most Bearish on E&Ps (*OXY*) vs. Last Week; Most Bullish on Midstream (*PAA*)

By Timm Schneider

Please let us know if you would like to discuss some of the relative set-ups. Please note at the time of writing, the author holds: 1) a ‘long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource…

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February 18, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending February 18th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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