Our Research


January 21, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending January 21th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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January 20, 2024

Model Portfolio Grinds Out ~5% Relative for the Week; Short Book Carries *All* the Weight…

By Timm Schneider

…with an almost 8% weighted return versus a ~1.6% weighted loss on the Long side. To all the Buy-Siders always complaining there are not enough ‘short’ recommendations, we have plenty within. Recall the core model…

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January 19, 2024

Most Hated in Energy: 1) Clean Tech & Renewables; 2) Ammonia & Hydrogen; and 3) the SCOOP/ STACK…

By Timm Schneider

…at least according to your responses to our proprietary 2024 Energy Outlook Survey! This will be the final installment of the survey results. Within we discuss: 1) Favorite and Least Favorite Energy Sub-Sectors; 2) Most…

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January 18, 2024

‘I’ve been a buyer of KMI shares. I purchased over 800,000 shares in December [2013] alone. So I guess my message…’

By Timm Schneider

‘…to those who saw the story less positively was, you’ll sell, I’ll buy, and we see who comes out best in the long run’ – Richard Kinder, Kinder Morgan Q4’13 Earnings Call (January 16th 2014)…

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January 17, 2024

Framing 2024 Commodity Price Expectations (Oil/ Gas/ C2/ C3) as Half of Survey Respondents Still View Oil as Key Driver of Sector Performance

By Timm Schneider

Within we discuss the results of our recent 2024 Energy Outlook Survey (~200 responses) focused on participant commodity price expectations for 2024. We believe this is an important piece in the overall process of defining…

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January 16, 2024

Short Interest Set-Up into Energy & Utility Earnings Shows Slightly Bearish 1) E&P; and 2) Midstream Bias…

By Timm Schneider

Please let us know if you would like to discuss some of the relative set-ups into earnings! Overall notable w/w changes (Active ‘SOL’) utilization: Higher (Bearish – with the caveat shorted shares will need to be covered,…

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January 14, 2024

Core Model Portfolio Generates ~2.5% Relative Return Since Inception On Jan 10th (Yes, Two Days Ago…)

By Timm Schneider

I can’t take credit for any of it at this point. These are all of the survey responses. See the website for details. Short portfolio beat out the longs by ~100bps relative. ***Please see within…

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January 14, 2024

From Continued Middle East Tensions to GasMasters United…. All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (Week Ending Jan-14th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

GasMasters United, of course, is the name ChatGPT suggested would be appropriate for the newly merged CHK-SWN when I queried a few days ago. It’s so bad, I’m almost starting to like it. But to all the…

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January 12, 2024

2024 Energy M&A Outlook (Survey Part II): Endeavor (Private) Voted as Overwhelming Takeout Target + Other Interesting Combos Within…

By Timm Schneider

As promised, here is Part II of our proprietary 2024 Energy Outlook Survey, focused on the M&A landscape. Recall we published Part I (The composition of our core model portfolio earlier this week: link). We…

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January 10, 2024

Initiating Our 2024 Core Model Portfolio and Framing Energy Sector Positioning (Outlook Survey Results – Part 1): 12 Weighted ‘Longs’ vs. 15 Weighted ‘Shorts’

By Timm Schneider

We received almost 200 responses to our survey, one of the highest turnouts yet. Thanks to all who filled it out. For those interested in the Super Bowl projections, you can find those on the…

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January 9, 2024

Per Our Proprietary 2024 Outlook Survey: San Francisco 49ers Voted Super Bowl Champs, Followed by Eagles & Cowboys. A Quick Heads up Within…

By Timm Schneider

Eagles?! Must be the legacy Sunoco Crowd 🙂 Thx to the ~200 responses! In any case, just a quick note that our proprietary 2024 Outlook Survey has been closed and we are in the final…

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January 9, 2024

Welcome to the ‘Poddler’ Party: Current Implied Pair Trades… PAA vs. PAGP; KNTK vs. WES; TRP vs. ENB; OKE vs. TRGP; OXY vs. APA; CHK vs. RRC; FANG vs. CIVI; TTE vs. EQNR; DK vs. CVI; RNGR vs. ACDC; SWX vs. OGE; PCG vs. XEL..

By Timm Schneider

…on heels of w/w ‘SOL’ utilization data. Please reach out if you would like to chat on this. Overall notable w/w changes (Active ‘SOL’) utilization: Higher (Bearish – we the caveat shorted shares will need to…

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January 9, 2024

SWN/ CHK Final ‘Take-Out’ Poll Premium Estimates Are In. Well, We’re Waiting…?!

By Timm Schneider

‘Well, We’re Waiting…’ A picture of current market participants anxiously waiting for any type of announcement. Who can name the movie.. No deal yet. But at least I got the Southwestern Ticker (SWN) correct this time…

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January 7, 2024

Updated CHK/ SWX Takes. No Deal Yet… But I Keep Refreshing Bloomberg

By Timm Schneider

Quick Sunday night update following yesterday’s note (*LINK*)_ Our survey participation on expected takeout premium of SWX by CHK – or lack thereof – is up to ~135 participants. The implied average weighted takeout price for…

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January 7, 2024

Your Weekly News Summary Across the Energy Value Chain. For the Week Ending January 7th

By Timm Schneider

We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include.  Please continue filling out our 2024 Outlook survey. Thx to the…

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