Our Research


October 20, 2025

Natural Gas: ~10% Front-Month Gap-Up on Weather; Cal26/27 More Muted

By Timm Schneider

Within, we provide a quick overview of our recent thoughts on natural gas. Recall we actively take (real money) natural gas positions – primarily via options (for better or worse). We believe this helps our active…

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October 19, 2025

Oil Markets: SLB Lays Out Two-Step Rebalancing Process; Deepwater vs. Onshore & International vs. North America

By Timm Schneider

SLB reported Q3’25 earnings on Friday. While much of the call (and analyst questions) focused on SLB’s digital business, we were primarily interested in macro takeaways – specifically global oil markets. Full details within, including…

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October 19, 2025

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending October 19th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

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October 18, 2025

‘Oil and gas industry frac activity has now fallen below levels required to sustain North American oil production…’

By Timm Schneider

…according to the Liberty (LBRT) Q3 earnings call on Friday. But who cares?! Since LBRT also have a power business and are hitting all the buzzwords around growing power demand, data centers and AI. Or…

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October 15, 2025

VIDEO UPDATE: Greetings from Houston (10-15-2025)

By Timm Schneider

As we are wrapping up our Houston trip (one last group dinner tonight, then off to NYC in am), we figured we’d share a few quick updates on recent discussions. After three location changes we…

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October 13, 2025

‘Love/Hate’ Portfolio Generates ~12.3% Return in First Half of October

By Timm Schneider

We construct a new ‘Love/Hate’ portfolio based on investor sentiment changes each month, spanning our ~200 issuer coverage universe across six energy & utility verticals. We typically review this portfolio on a month-over-month basis, but…

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October 13, 2025

Waterbridge (WBI): Where Do Analysts Shake Out Post the ‘Quiet Period’?

By Timm Schneider

Waterbridge (WBI) IPO’d on September 17th. Today marks the first day that the Sell-Side Equity analysts of the bookrunners were able to initiate on the company. Recall WBI was an upsized offering that priced at…

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October 13, 2025

Natural Gas: NOV-25 Hits Lowest Level Since Late 2021 on Weather, Wind and Coal Burns

By Timm Schneider

For NOV-25, This is not the rolling front month (that one has been well lower – this is the actual NOV 25 contract when we look back a few years). The contract is down ~18%…

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October 12, 2025

Venture Global (VG): Option Markets Light Up as Credit Decouples from Stock Carnage

By Timm Schneider

VG wiped-out ~$14bn in market cap over the past week on the back of Friday’s arbitration-driven ~25% share price collapse. In this note, we break down VG’s relative trading behavior across equity, preferreds, and debt,…

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October 12, 2025

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending October 11th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

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October 11, 2025

Coverage Under Fire: ~200 Stocks in the Wake of Friday’s Sell-Off

By Timm Schneider

Below, we provide a concise technical summary across our ~200-stock coverage universe, spanning the following segments: Upstream Midstream & Energy Infrastructure Downstream (Refining & Integrated Oil) Oilfield Services Alternative Energy & Clean Tech Utilities &…

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October 9, 2025

Venture Global (VG): ~$3.5B BP Damages Baked In Post Close. Over-reaction or Reality?

By Timm Schneider

Venture Global (VG) shares took a major hit post close after announcing a pivotal 8-K – an arbitration tribunal sided with BP over disputed commissioning cargoes at Calcasieu Pass 1 (CP1). The stock closed at…

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October 9, 2025

Zero Premium, Maximum Pain: Why the SM–CIVI Merger Speculation Leaves Holders Furious

By Timm Schneider

Feedback on the SM-CIVI tie-up speculation spans from widespread apathy (‘who actually cares about an oily SMID cap deal with this crude tape except bankers, lawyers, and C-suites chasing C-i-C payouts?’) to outright disbelief (‘What…

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October 9, 2025

Fermi (FRMI): ~70% of Options Imply Short-Dated ‘Gamma Scalps’ on Volatility

By Timm Schneider

Within, we take a detailed look at what the current FRMI options chain is telling us about positiniong. We find this fitting for an equity that we believe – afterall – is an option (and…

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October 8, 2025

CIVI + SM = CiviSMash?! No Premium Combo Could be in Works, per Bloomberg

By Timm Schneider

Another potential barn-burner in SMID cap E&P land… Link to article: Civitas Weighs Merger With Permian Basin Rival SM Energy Screens accretive on FCF and leverage, marginally so on EBITDA. We assume CIVI is the…

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