Our Research


November 19, 2025

Natural Gas: Rarely have we witnessed a wider (and more opinionated) divergence between Bulls and Bears

By Timm Schneider

Our recent client conversations on natural gas reflect the widest – and most fiercely opinionated – divide seen in years. From rapid-fire near-term trading to 2026+ macro scenarios, LNG expectations have polarized the market drawing…

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November 18, 2025

Navigating the Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Chessboard (***NEW VERSION***)

By Timm Schneider

Within we provide a uniquely comprehensive, cross-sector lens on the entire energy, utility, and chemicals universe – quantifying where each segment stands in terms of price momentum, valuation, and market-implied upside. By combining technical positioning…

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November 17, 2025

DVN & CTRA: Feedback Post our Hypothetical Deal Analysis – *MUCH* Preferred to SM/CIVI

By Timm Schneider

Thoughts on DevTerra? source: The Schneider Capital Group; The Internet Over the weekend, we published a comprehensive accretion/dilution analysis on a hypothetical merger of equals between DVN and CTRA – zero premium, all equity, with full…

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November 17, 2025

Our ***Brand New*** Chemicals M&A Heat Map (Ranking ~100 Hypothetical Transactions)

By Timm Schneider

Because… who knows what will happen into year-end (or beyond)! Why now? We spent a lot of time digesting chemical earnings over the past few weeks. Both from pure play chemical companies (speciality & commodity)…

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November 16, 2025

Closing our Q3’25 (‘Most Loved & Hated’) Earnings Portfolio for a Median Return of ~9% Since 10-01-2025

By Timm Schneider

Effective immediately (and with Q3 earnings in the rear-view mirror), we are closing our Q3 earnings portfolio (‘Most Loved & Hated: link‘) for a median return of ~9% (average ~8%). Full portfolio positions within. The…

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November 16, 2025

Timm-inator 2: Market Judgment Day – Quick Takes from the Week

By Timm Schneider

Summarizing key chatter and high-level discussions… Within we focus on: Topical stock discussions and key macro/ industry themes to were front and center last week. This week we cover IEA Pushes Out ‘Peak Oil’; CVX Analyst…

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November 15, 2025

DVN for CTRA *IS* on the 2025 M&A Bingo Card – Is it More Likely? Or Maybe DVN Should just Buy Continental (Private). Solid Way to Fill Their OKC Tower

By Timm Schneider

Activist Kimmeridge is now active in both Devon Energy and Coterra Energy – most recently surfacing via a disclosed stake in Devon on Friday (following the open letter to CTRA earlier this month). The combination…

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November 15, 2025

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending November 16th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

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November 11, 2025

Should CVX 1) Buy-In HESM; 2) Buy CP Chem; and 3) Maybe Buy COP, BP or OXY?

By Timm Schneider

Yes; Depends; Yes (slam-dunk buying COP)/ Yes (looks good in excel with BP – other hurdles)/ Eh – We’re ok w/o OXY. Just a few casual thoughts ahead of the CVX Analyst Day tomorrow. We…

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November 11, 2025

Esentia Energy Systems (Esentia) Pre-IPO Analysis: Part 1 (Quick Overview)

By Timm Schneider

Within, we take our first stab at the Esentia IPO going over: Offering Details; Assets and Operational Scope (Including Growth Estimates); Financial Results and Forecasts (Including Initial Multiples); Key Risks; Additional Details & Governance; and…

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November 10, 2025

Fermi (FRMI): ‘Not all Enemies Wear Uniforms, But Make No Mistake, America is at War’

By Timm Schneider

For Q3 earnings, the boldest line on Wall Street isn’t coming from an activist letter (sorry Kimmeridge) – it’s front and center in FRMI’s first-ever shareholder letter, setting the stage for a Q3 release that…

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November 10, 2025

Venture Global (VG): Upside in the Ashes of Arbitration; Updated NAV

By Timm Schneider

Within we show our updated NAV for VG post today’s Q3 earnings release. Happy to chat feedback post today’s results. Timm Key changes: 1) Updated for Q3 actuals and new SPAs; 2) Arbitration liability now…

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November 10, 2025

Global Oil: Should ‘Exploration’ Be Valued as a Call Option on (Higher) Oil Prices Rather Than an Annoying Expense?

By Timm Schneider

After (re)poring over Q3 earnings calls from the globe’s energy heavyweights – Aramco, Exxon, Chevron, BP, Conoco, Eni, Equinor, Shell, and Total – a profound shift in narrative emerges: ‘Exploration,’ once sidelined by capital discipline,…

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November 9, 2025

Your Energy & Utility News for the Week Ending November 9th

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

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November 6, 2025

Loews Corp (L): Tax Free Spin Of Boardwalk Pipeline Could Unlock ~$35p/s in Value…

By Timm Schneider

…but spoiler alert: We do not believe that will happen any time soon. We believe management is happy with the status quo of collecting cash from the subs and buying back shares at the HoldCo…

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