Our Research


July 24, 2023

Good for KMI, Bad for TRP? Private Capital Continues to Seek Out Natural Gas Assets…

By Timm Schneider

TRP announced a 40% sale of its Columbia Gas & Columbia Gulf Transmission network for ~$3.95bn (USD) to Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) at an implied ~10.5x ‘23E EBITDA multiple (link). We calculate a lower multiple based on…

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July 21, 2023

‘Game Theory’ Probability Weighted Valuations Imply ~$58.25 for OKE & $67.12 for MMP

By Timm Schneider

Happy Friday – ***Excel Back-up Available Upon Request*** Current Prices/ Marks (7/21 ~11AM ET): OKE $66.34 MMP $65.81 Deal Spread: 5.17% OKE Value ‘Reverse’ Implied: $61.26 These are our probability inputs:  Deal closes as is:…

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July 20, 2023

KMI: ‘Great Quarter Folks…’

By Timm Schneider

…Hasn’t been uttered on a KMI earnings call in a long time. And it wasn’t on last night’s analyst call, either, with a slight miss versus consensus and guide-down to 2023 estimates on lower commodity…

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July 17, 2023

Lot of questions on today’s shareholder letter… ‘game theory optimal’ approach supports o/w MMP vs. u/w OKE

By Timm Schneider

***We will be back with additional details tomorrow*** Leading with the conclusion we continue to like our o/w mmp vs. u/w oke call into the deal vote on September 21st. This continues to be anchored to our…

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July 17, 2023

‘SOL’ Mondays: ‘Shorts’ Picked Up Most for E&Ps and Utilities into Earnings; Integrated & Refiner Shorts Down Third Week in a Row…

By Timm Schneider

Please reach out you have questions on the data. We show w/w changes (%) in active utilization below, by subsector and individual company. We provide sector summaries, but also recommend looking at individual company data…

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July 17, 2023

(Permian) Capex Matters

By Timm Schneider

We spent the weekend going through estimates for the largest six publicly traded independent Permian E&P operators (by oil rig count) on the heels of recent investor discussions and comments, which we highlight here: ***Excel data…

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July 16, 2023

The Energizer… by Schneider (July 16th)

By Timm Schneider

Hope you had a nice weekend! Below are some thoughts and highlights from the week. As always, please reach out with any questions. We received several follow-up questions to yesterday’s note (Are Permian E&Ps Massive…

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July 15, 2023

Are Permian E&Ps Massive Shorts into the Q… Is KMI (Finally) the Stock to Own… PLUG Torpedos the Short Portfolio… Key Investor Questions/ Comments from the Week

By Timm Schneider

We are working on our weekly recap. It won’t get done in time for tonight. But for some weekend reading, we are sharing 1) Key investor questions/ comments from the week (not necessarily our views); and…

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July 13, 2023

XOM for DEN Screens Extremely Accretive…

By Timm Schneider

…For DEN (N/R) Executives. A quick peak at the change of control provisions per the most recent proxy (Denbury 2023 Proxy Statement; see page 57, or 64 in the pdf) reveals the following payouts: 1)…

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July 13, 2023

Public E&P Production Growth Estimates Imply Negative Growth for Privates in 2024. Really?!

By Timm Schneider

We ran a quick bottoms up analysis (Three-Stream for 1) Oil; 2) Nat Gas; and 3) NGLs) based on consensus production forecasts for publicly traded domestic Independent E&P companies. Our analysis comes on the heels…

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July 12, 2023

Join the Tim(m)s… An Energy Dinner Discussion w/ Tim Fenn – Office Managing Partner in Latham & Watkins’ Houston Office

By Timm Schneider

The Schneider Capital Group is excited to host the Third ‘Legends of Energy Dinner’ event in Houston, TX on Thursday, August 17th, featuring Latham & Watkins’ Tim Fenn. We look forward to an interactive discussion…

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July 11, 2023

***STARTING IN AN HOUR: Interactive virtual discussion with NET Power (NYSE: NPWR) CEO Danny Rice and CFO Akash Patel

By Timm Schneider

Please send me an e-mail ASAP for the zoom link if you’d like to join Details:  Tuesday July 11th | 11AM ET NPWR started trading on the NYSE on June 9th, so we believe this will be…

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July 11, 2023

‘Crab Cakes & Football – That’s What Maryland Does!’… and some LNG exports. Cove Point in Focus

By Timm Schneider

Can you name the movie from the title quote Our Take: LNG pushes to the fore once again with the most recent transaction in the space: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway purchases D’s (N/R) remaining 50% stake…

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July 10, 2023

‘SOL’ Mondays: Proprietary Short Interest Analysis Highlights PAGP (vs. PAA)/ SMR/ STEM/ EQNR/ ACDC & TRP/ MAXN/ AMTX/ VTLE/ CNQ

By Timm Schneider

***Please join us tomorrow for an exclusive virtual fireside chat with senior management of Net Power (NPWR). You can find the NPWR ‘w/w SOL change; ‘w/w Borrow change;’ and ‘absolute SOL utilization’ in the Renewables…

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July 8, 2023

Can’t Eat ‘Relative’… Wait What?! Performance Tracker: Week One for Our ‘Survey Model Portfolio’ and our o/w MMP vs u/w OKE call…

By Timm Schneider

We cheekily poke fun at one of our old sales counterparts who was always quick to tell folks ‘well, you can’t eat ‘relative…’ when it comes to stock returns, implying that only absolute returns matter.  …

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