Our Research

Key Takeaway: Looking through all the back and forth we believe this transaction will close following a ‘deal-sweetener’ being paid by OKE in the $3.50 – $7.50 per share range to MMP holders. If the deal…

What a week… Below is a summary of 1) Our model portfolio performance (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. All data is as of 16:00 of the…

We have a great (virtual) fireside chat coming up focused on all things ‘natural gas storage’ with David Marchese, CEO of Caliche Storage. From the ‘Duck Curve’ to LNG exports and volumes out of the…

•••We spent the weekend running through contractual obligations/ re-contracting dynamics and the general business mix of TRP’s new ‘liquids spin-co’••• Key Takeaway: This is not a bad business, and these are not bad assets.  But this…

Below is a summary of 1) Our model portfolio performance (based on survey results for our 2H’23 Outlook; Link); and 2) Our recent Trade Ideas. All data is as of 16:00 of the respective trade…

At the time of this writing, shares of TC Energy (TRP) are down ~5% on the heels of the announcement they are spinning the liquids business and the conference call this morning. This is in…

Interesting announcement from TC Energy post the close tonight. *Call at 8:30AM ET tomorrow* The company will be pursuing a (tax-free for U.S. and Canadian Investors) spin-off of the liquids assets into a separately treaded…

TRP announced a 40% sale of its Columbia Gas & Columbia Gulf Transmission network for ~$3.95bn (USD) to Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) at an implied ~10.5x ‘23E EBITDA multiple (link). We calculate a lower multiple based on…

Happy Friday – ***Excel Back-up Available Upon Request*** Current Prices/ Marks (7/21 ~11AM ET): OKE $66.34 MMP $65.81 Deal Spread: 5.17% OKE Value ‘Reverse’ Implied: $61.26 These are our probability inputs:  Deal closes as is:…

…Hasn’t been uttered on a KMI earnings call in a long time. And it wasn’t on last night’s analyst call, either, with a slight miss versus consensus and guide-down to 2023 estimates on lower commodity…

***We will be back with additional details tomorrow*** Leading with the conclusion we continue to like our o/w mmp vs. u/w oke call into the deal vote on September 21st. This continues to be anchored to our…

Please reach out you have questions on the data. We show w/w changes (%) in active utilization below, by subsector and individual company. We provide sector summaries, but also recommend looking at individual company data…

We spent the weekend going through estimates for the largest six publicly traded independent Permian E&P operators (by oil rig count) on the heels of recent investor discussions and comments, which we highlight here: ***Excel data…

Hope you had a nice weekend! Below are some thoughts and highlights from the week. As always, please reach out with any questions. We received several follow-up questions to yesterday’s note (Are Permian E&Ps Massive…

We are working on our weekly recap. It won’t get done in time for tonight. But for some weekend reading, we are sharing 1) Key investor questions/ comments from the week (not necessarily our views); and…