Our Research


February 17, 2024

So I went to my first Lacrosse Match (Game?)… Also thx to all the Ute Nerds who told me going long SO was a good idea (sarcasm)… MODEL PORTFOLIO Update Within

By Timm Schneider

I’m from Chicago. We don’t do Lacrosse in the Midwest. Baseball/ Basketball/ Football. BUT my office is  right next to the Franklin & Marshall Stadium (pictured above). A D-3 school in central PA, albeit at…

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February 16, 2024

TRP: Promise Little, Deliver Less?! Not So Fast, Eh…

By Timm Schneider

TC Energy (we still call it TransCanada ~100% of the time) reported results earlier today and hosted a conference call. The market liked it. Shares of TRP are up ~2.2% at the time of writing,…

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February 15, 2024

Antero Resources (AR) Gets the Message: Stock Up ~10%+ Post 2024 Guide (~6% Model Portfolio Weight)… Or is it Just a Low Bar for E&P Investors?

By Timm Schneider

AR is the second largest Independent E&P ‘long’ position in our Model Portfolio, with a ~6% weight. Our largest Upstream position is Permian Resources (PR) at ~11%. Shares of AR are up ~10%+ at the…

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February 15, 2024

Targa (TRGP) Quick Take: 2024 Capex ‘Blessings’ Could Drive Doubling of FCF in 2025…

By Timm Schneider

TRGP was an anchor holding in our core model portfolio last year. We do not have a position this year.However, given the company’s 1) vast Permian footprint; 2) C-Corp structure (versus MLP); and 3) ‘cult…

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February 14, 2024

Energy Transfer (ET) is the largest ‘Overweight’ in our Model Portfolio…

By Timm Schneider

…With a 17% weight on the ‘Long’ side. The company reported Q4’23 earnings post the close and hosted a conference call. Shares are up marginally afterhours despite 2024 EBITDA guide (mid) of ~$14,650mm that was slightly…

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February 13, 2024

Half Way Through Earnings, Investors Turn More Bearish Midstream and More Bullish Clean Tech

By Timm Schneider

Please let us know if you would like to discuss some of the relative set-ups. Please note at the time of writing, the author holds: 1) a ‘long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource…

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February 12, 2024

SHELL & BP Should Combine (Part I). I like this Better than COP and BP…

By Timm Schneider

We spent a lot of time over the past few months dissecting potential M&A targets. COP and BP made a lot of sense. But the FANG Endeavor deal reshuffled the landscape once again. We now…

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February 12, 2024

Wait?! So E&P Stocks Can Actually Go Up? Feedback on FANG/ Endeavor…

By Timm Schneider

Within we share some of the feedback from our discussions with investors. Shares of FANG finished the day up ~14% to ~$166 per share. This makes FANG the best performer out of our Upstream coverage,…

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February 11, 2024

Nat Gas Bears Are Calling For Sub-$1.50… Bulls Hope for Colder Weather

By Timm Schneider

But is it really a weather (demand… or lack thereof) or production (supply) story? Interested in your thoughts, as always… We had a lot of discussions on natural gas this week, despite a very busy…

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February 11, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending February 11th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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February 10, 2024

Model Portfolio 1st Month Post-Mortem: Outperforms Benchmarks; ‘Long’ PSX and ‘Short’ NFE Are Portfolio Champions…

By Timm Schneider

At the time of writing, the author currently holds a ‘1) long’ position in shares of ARLP, Alliance Resource Partners L.P.; 2) a ‘long’ position in shares of Citigroup (C); and 3) a short position…

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February 9, 2024

Why are shares of PAA/ PAGP not trading better today on solid print & outlook? We are Buyers on Weakness…

By Timm Schneider

Of course, we can’t say for sure, BUT equities of both entities are (as of 13:00 EST) actually outperforming the overall group today. Further, PAA is up ~2% YTD versus MLP peers ET up ~0.70%,…

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February 7, 2024

BP (N/R) M&A Survey Results. 100% of Respondents Believe…

By Timm Schneider

…there is a 0% chance BP is a buyer of anything… Thx to all!.  The impetus for the survey was our note from February 6th 2024: BP Just Became the ‘Belle of the Ball:’ SHELL or COP…

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February 7, 2024

ENPH: CEO is Calling the Bottom… Stock Up ~15% AH Despite Lackluster Q. Buy the Rip or Short for a Dip?

By Timm Schneider

Shares of ENPH are up ~15% AH at the time of this writing. The quarter (not great) itself wasn’t the reason for the jump in the share price. That said, the CEO noted on the call…

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February 6, 2024

BP Just Became the ‘Belle of the Ball:’ SHELL or COP Should be Buyers… Maybe One Other…

By Timm Schneider

e-mail for thoughts… I can’t listen to this analyst meeting anymore. ***WHY IS EVERYONE MISSING THE POINT. BP IS NOW THE PRIME TAKEOUT TARGET*** …We have a lot of thoughts on this. But like I…

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