Our Research


May 4, 2024

Model Portfolio Pares 420Bps of Performance: ENLC/ SWN & HP ‘Shorts’ Provide Some Relief. What do you Think About Our New Thesis Post Earnings?

By Timm Schneider

After listening to a plethora of earnings calls and meeting with folks (and head of next week’s meetings in Texas), I kind of want to be positioned: 1) Long oily E&P; 2) Short gassy E&P;…

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May 3, 2024

Short Interest Set-Up Post Heavy Earnings Week Shows Bias Towards ‘Long’ E&P vs. ‘Short’ 1) Clean Tech; 2) Oilfield Services; and 3) Integrateds/ Refiners. Slightly Bullish Utes

By Timm Schneider

See within for detailed stock & sector observations as well as a brief tutorial for interpreting the SOL analysis.  We believe the individual stock break-down (we limit to top three for ease of viewing) is…

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May 1, 2024

Promise Little, Deliver Less: Despite ‘Horror Show’ Conference Call We are Closing our ENLC Short..

By Timm Schneider

We had a small short position on ENLC. The set up was stacked against the company. Sell-side pushing this as a huge long into the quarter. To be sure we do not love the assets…

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April 30, 2024

NEXT WEEK: Dinner w/ Hartree’s Ed Morse at Capacity… Seeing if I Can get a Bigger Venue. Allocating Spots This Week. Registration Still Open.

By Timm Schneider

Extremely timely obviously given current gyrations in global energy markets! If you are interested please use the link below. I am going to try to allocate spots by this Wednesday. Unlike our bulge bracket counterparts,…

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April 27, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending April 28th 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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April 27, 2024

Model Portfolio: We Closed Our Best Performer Since Inception (Long AR) This Week. Working on Some ‘Sleeper’ Replacements..

By Timm Schneider

Antero Resources (AR)… we had a good run with a total return of ~46% since inception. We had an implied Northeast pair on of Long AR vs. Short RRC, which we closed out and marked…

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April 25, 2024

I’m *NOT* Bullish Natural Gas Price. Near, Medium, or Long-term. V^2 > P

By Timm Schneider

…I am, however, bullish natural gas 1) Volume; and (extremely bullish) 2) Volatility. I am officially branding this the ‘V^2 > P’ thesis. To be sure, I believe there will be pockets of temporary natural…

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April 25, 2024

Quick Takes on Antero Resources (AR; Long) and Helmerich & Payne (HP; Short) Results & Outlook

By Timm Schneider

AR: Positive HP: Negative We have a long position in shares of AR in the Model Portfolio at a 6% weight. We reiterated our relative (E&P) call yesterday of 1) Long AR. Vs Short RRC…

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April 24, 2024

Real Time Shares-on-Loan Utilization Analysis Shows PAA & PUMP Could be Ripe for ‘Short Squeeze’ (Full Sector Details Within)

By Timm Schneider

***See within for detailed stock & sector observations as well as a brief tutorial for interpreting the SOL analysis. We believe the individual stock break-down (we limit to top three for ease of viewing) is…

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April 24, 2024

Key E&P Match-Up in Model Portfolio: Long AR vs. Short RRC. Reiterate

By Timm Schneider

While we do not specifically pair stocks within the portfolio (we look at it more holistically as the long book vs. the short book), the long AR vs. short RRC kind of stands out as…

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April 23, 2024

The Model Portfolio Didn’t Just Get Nipped Today, it Got ‘NEP-ed’ Today…

By Timm Schneider

As both our NEE short (17% weight) and NEP short (10% weight) gave back ~2.7% and ~5%, respectively, since Friday’s close. We provide a quick summary of NEE & NEP results within. Overall, we only…

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April 22, 2024

Key Takes From the Road: Emerging from NYC and the Mid-Atlantic with Fresh Perspectives

By Timm Schneider

We spent most of last week on the road speaking with investors in NYC and the Mid-Atlantic. Within we provide some high level feedback and thoughts post our meetings. Most important, if you have not…

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April 21, 2024

All Your Weekly Energy News in One Spot (For the Week Ending April 21st 2024)

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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April 21, 2024

Global Oil: Just read through the updated Iran sanctions in the Foreign Aid Package passed by the House earlier on Saturday…

By Timm Schneider

…and we are left to wonder why this would be a big deal for the oil market (from a geopolitical perspective) over the near-to-medium term. We do not believe global oil flows will be impacted in…

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April 20, 2024

Biggest Winner Since Inception of Model Portfolio Remains a Fuel Cell/ Hydrogen Short…

By Timm Schneider

…i.e. Plug Power (PLUG), up ~36.4% since inception on January 10th. We are starting to think about how much meat is left on the bone, but not ready to take the short off in the…

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