Our Research


January 6, 2024

Interim CHK/ SWN Survey Update. Thx to the ~95 Participants So Far. SWN Take-Out Price Pegged at…

By Timm Schneider

…$7.25 on a weighted average basis. We have received ~95 responses as of Saturday at ~17:00. This survey is also live on several Social Media platforms and results continue to come in. We will continue to…

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January 5, 2024

After Yesterday’s ‘Ketchup Sandwich’ – Two Buns, No Meat – We Opine (One Final Time?) on APA/ CPE (and general sector M&A)…

By Timm Schneider

Please see our previous notes for additional information: (1. APA/ CPE: And Here I Thought APA May Have Had a Chance to Finish in the Green Today…; and 2. Early Feedback on ‘APA for CPE’…

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January 4, 2024

APA/ CPE: And here I thought APA may have had a chance to finish in the green today…

By Timm Schneider

…but the call was kind of ‘meh’. Too many subjective statements around inventory depth (‘great’ and ‘deep’ and ‘accretive’ etc) and future production plans. Investment banking teams, maybe next time prep your management teams ahead…

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January 4, 2024

Early Feedback on ‘APA for CPE’ Transaction…

By Timm Schneider

First Week of 2024, First Deal. APA for CPE. All equity deal and implied ~15% premium for CPE based on closing prices as of January 3rd. APA down ~4.85% pre-market with CPE up ~5.05. Call…

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January 2, 2024

Real Time ‘SOL’ with Timm Schneider: Renewables/ Clean Tech End 2023 with Outsized Short Covering

By Timm Schneider

Overall notable w/w changes (Active ‘SOL’) utilization: Higher (Bearish): TRP/ SUN/ UAN/ PAA/ MAXN/ CPE/ TTE/ RNGR/ NRG/ PCG Lower (Bullish): TELL/ ENLC/ STEM/ NPWR/ SPWR/ VTLE/ CVI/ NBR/ SDRL/ HE **Excel Data for ~200 Corporates + Historical…

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December 31, 2023

Your Final News Summary for 2023: Topics for the Week Ending 12-31-2023

By Timm Schneider

Happy New Year All! We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include. We realize this is a lot of…

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December 30, 2023

We received a lot of questions/ comments on TRGP on Friday

By Timm Schneider

Sharing some general feedback within and tying up some of the moving pieces around the ‘Bull vs. Bear’ debate. TRGP is in a position to potentially increase FCF by~400% from 2023E to 2025E versus large…

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December 29, 2023

My 2024 Preview… Just Noodling Through Sectors… Stocks to Follow

By Timm Schneider

Our one pager… Own Integrateds/ Majors. I’m not bullish oil. I know I will get some hate mail here but there will be a decent amount of incremental South American production. OPEC has a large spare…

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December 28, 2023

TRGP Is Biggest Debate Stock For 2024…So Far… Here is Your Last Survey ‘Freebie’

By Timm Schneider

Thx to the almost 200 responses already! This is on track to be the highest participation survey yet… This will be your last ‘freebie’ for 2023. I plan to have results first week of January….

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December 27, 2023

It’s All About that Nat Gas Storage: ~$2bn Asset Purchase by WMB Highlights Potential Value of Storage Assets. Own KMI on this…

By Timm Schneider

Our stock call on this: Own KMI. This is no knock on WMB but at a 6.3% dividend yield (vs. WMB at ~5.1%) and a ~23% and 14% discount on earnings and EBITDA, respectively, we…

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December 26, 2023

Real Time ‘SOL’ w/ Timm Schneider: Data Implies ‘Sell OFS’ to ‘Buy Midstream, Integrateds/ Refiners and E&P’ Into Year-End

By Timm Schneider

**Excel Data for ~200 Corporates + Historical Numbers Available Upon Request*** See within for key stock & sector observations. We have also identified implied pair trades based on some of the moves in w/w short…

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December 24, 2023

***New & Improved Format*** All Your Weekly News in One Convenient Place for the Week Ending 12-24-2023

By Timm Schneider

Happy Holidays! We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include. We realize this is a lot of information…

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December 24, 2023

***New & Improved Format*** All Your Weekly News in One Convenient Place for the Week Ending 12-24-2023

By Timm Schneider

Happy Holidays! We have made some slight tweaks to the categories (see below) and we have added a short summary descriptions for each news headline we include. We realize this is a lot of information…

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December 20, 2023

We are Closing All Model Portfolios & Trade Ideas; Core Portfolio 1 (‘The Honeybadger’) Delivers ~44% Return Since June 30th

By Timm Schneider

All closing prices are marked as of 16:00, Monday December 18th. Please see within of detailed performance breakouts. We will be a publishing a more detailed piece over the next few days going over our…

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December 19, 2023

EIA Drilling Productivity Report Revisions Surprised Us With Upside Bakken Volumes

By Timm Schneider

Realize some folks don’t like the EIA (or IEA) data, but the new drilling productivity report got released yesterday. Link below. LINK TO EIA REPORT: December 2023 EIA Drilling Productivity Report We generally find the m/m revisions…

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