Our Research


July 7, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending July 7th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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July 5, 2024

Model Portfolio Pares ~130Bps as Heavy Weighted Renewable Shorts Claw Back

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): NFE (Short); PAA/PAGP (N/R); TLNE (N/R); ET (Long); CVX (Long); PSX (Long); ENLC (Closed); APA (N/R); PR (Long). Key Takes: Our long book pared ~17bps and our short…

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July 3, 2024

New Fortress Energy (NFE; Short): Last Night’s Data Center Solutions Press Release Read Like a ‘Ketchup Sandwich…’

By Timm Schneider

Two buns, no meat… Link to release: New Fortress Energy Announces Launch of Klondike Digital Infrastructure to Develop Data Center Solutions On the stock, we find ourselves in the minority here (yet again) versus our…

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July 2, 2024

Hot… or Not? The Psychological Set-Up into Q2 Earnings Season (All Energy + Utilities)

By Timm Schneider

One of our preferred measures of sentiment on a stock is the implied return required to reach its previous 52-week high. Why? It can’t be ‘adjusted/ manipulated’ (in theory). It is out there for everyone…

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July 1, 2024

Model Portfolio Update: Reducing Our NEP Short Weight to 5% from 10%…

By Timm Schneider

…which is not reflective of us becoming more constructive on NEP, but rather a portfolio sizing (risk management) adjustment. Before todays weighting change, we had almost a third of our short book (15 total positions)…

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July 1, 2024

Natural Gas: We Estimate a 40bcf Injection versus Consensus at a 13- 76Bcf Range

By Timm Schneider

Please see within for: 1) Our expectation for the weekly storage number (7-3-2024 release due to the Holiday); 2) Our updated regional forecasts; and 3) updated end-of-injection season balances. ***Let us know if you would like…

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June 30, 2024

Our Top Seven Upstream Pair Trades Into the Q

By Timm Schneider

call us to walk through these. Pairs within. Long CNX vs. Short VTLE LONG CRC vs. Short CVX Long PBF vs. Short DINO Long APA vs. Short BP Long PR vs. Short OVV Long COP…

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June 30, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending June 30th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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June 29, 2024

Model Portfolio Outshines S&P 500 with Stellar +340bps Week: LNG & PR Longs, ORSTED & NEE Shorts Power the Advance. Who Needs NVDA, Anyways?!

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks and themes this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): SM (N/R); NFE (Short); TLNE (N/R); AES (N/R); ET (Long); LNG (Long); OKE (Long); TRGP (N/R); Nat gas Macro. Key Takes: Our most profitable *open*…

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June 27, 2024

Weekly Sentiment Gauge (Tracking Real-Time ‘SOL’ Utilization) Notables: WES vs. TRP; FCEL vs. BE; CRK vs. CHK/ EQT; CNQ/TTE vs. IMO; RES vs. TS; VST

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** We believe the individual stock break-down is most helpful for those investors trying to gauge short-term sentiment changes. Stocks that caught our attention this week…

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June 26, 2024

Getting Questions on NFE. Maintain *Short* in Model Portfolio. LNG is Our Preferred…LNG Play. NFE Remains Top Short w/ TR of ~43%

By Timm Schneider

The ‘traditional’ Sell-Side loves NFE with an average expected total return of ~86% and target price of ~$38.50. The Schneider Capital Group… Not so Much. Shares of NFE are down ~43% since inception of our…

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June 25, 2024

Natural Gas: 59Bcf Injection Est. vs. Consensus at 33- 66Bcf and Five-Year Average at 85bcf

By Timm Schneider

Please see within for: 1) Our expectation for the weekly storage number (6-27-2024 release); 2) Our updated regional forecasts; and 3) updated end-of-injection season balances. ***Let us know if you would like to chat gas markets…

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June 23, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending June 23rd 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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June 22, 2024

Model Portfolio Lags S&P 500 by ~100bps. Remains Relative Outperformer vs. All Energy & Utilities (~1,000bps on average). LNG Long & PLUG Short Drive Weekly Return. NEE = Biggest Debate Stock (Recently)

By Timm Schneider

Key Takes: Our most profitable *open* position since the Model Portfolio inception on January 10th 2024 is our NFE short for a total return of ~41%, followed closely by our PLUG short with a total return…

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June 21, 2024

Natural Gas: ~71Bcf Injection (Almost) Exactly in-line w/ our Proprietary Model Overall *AND* on Regional Breakout Basis

By Timm Schneider

We continue to fine tune our proprietary natural gas storage model on a weekly basis. Our 70bcf injection estimate was in-line with the EIA’s 71bcf published number due to rounding. Consensus was at 69bcf. Today’s…

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