Our Research


August 12, 2024

Model Portfolio Adds ~500Bps of Performance as NFE Short Remains the Gift That Keeps on Giving…

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): PAA (N/R); GEL (N/R); TLN (Long); LNG (Long); ET (N/R) (N/R); CIVI (N/R); CRK (N/R); CHK (N/R); AR/AM (N/R). Model Portfolio Total Relative Return (+15.4% Total Return)…

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August 11, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending Aug 11th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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August 5, 2024

The Eagle Ford Was Literally One of the Most Hated Basins… But Activity Levels Are Steadily Increasing. What Gives? Detailed Texas O&G Activity Update Within

By Timm Schneider

Earlier Today, The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) released the monthly ‘Summary of Drilling Permits, Completions and Plugging Reports Processed’ for the month of July. In our most recent Outlook survey, no one voted for the Eagle…

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August 4, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending Aug 4th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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August 4, 2024

Model Portfolio Pares 200Bps in Volatile Week. Losing Performance on TRP & AEP Shorts is Most Frustrating. TLN Only Long in Green (Despite Giving Back Most Gains by Fri Close)…

By Timm Schneider

We had noticed a general sentiment change (to positive from negative) on both these equities heading into earnings. TRP was even more obvious then AEP (some risk-off benefit here w/ Utes on AEP) as TRP…

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July 31, 2024

‘Risk On’ in Energy: 1) E&P; and 2) OFS Equities See Large w/w Real Time Short Covering (+ve); Unwind from Prior Week vs. Integrateds/ Majors/ Refiners/ Midstream

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares that lenders (agent + other) have lent to market participants wanting to ‘short’ a particular security. For our analysis,…

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July 30, 2024

Reiterate TLN Long (10% Weight) on PJM Auction (!) Results; Shares Up ~15% Post Close

By Timm Schneider

We are reiterating our Long on shares of TLN at a 10% weight in our Model Portfolio (Long book). Recall we initiated the position on July 17th at a 7% long weight (Model Portfolio: Adding…

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July 29, 2024

Model Portfolio: Increasing TLN Long Weight to 10% from 7% Ahead of Key Catalysts

By Timm Schneider

We are increasing our TLN weight in the Long book of the model portfolio to 10% from 7%. Our average price of the position is now ~$115 per share, still underwater versus the ~$110 shares…

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July 28, 2024

WEEKEND READING: Your Energy News Summary for the Week Ending July 28th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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July 27, 2024

Model Portfolio Grinds Out Small Gain Despite Lackluster Debut from New Addition TLN (Long Book) and +ve Sentiment Shifts on TRP and AEP (Both Shorts)

By Timm Schneider

Most discussed stocks this week (irrespective of Model Portfolio): EQT (N/R); RRC (N/R); TLN (Long); VST (N/R); BP (N/R); SHEL (N/R); ENPH (N/R); TRP (Short); ET (Long) Key Takes: Our long book pared ~134bps and our short…

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July 26, 2024

Key 1) Upstream; 2) OFS; & 3) Utility/ IPP Combinations & Strategic Initiatives Voted as Likely to Come to Fruition Before Year End…

By Timm Schneider

…according to our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey. Recall we published our Midstream/ Infrastructure results yesterday (link). Respondents also provided some interesting thoughts around assets sales and potential asset swaps versus just vanilla corporate M&A. Companies…

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July 25, 2024

M&A: Key Midstream/ Energy Infrastructure Transactions Y’all Think Will Happen Before Year-End…

By Timm Schneider

thx again to everyone who filled out our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey! Whoever picked ET buying KMI (lol?)… I like the spirit of the mega-deal, but unfortunately this combination would be a train wreck from…

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July 24, 2024

E&P and OFS Equities Likely Became a Source of Funds for Integrateds/ Majors on the Heels of a Broader Risk-Off Rotation. Full SOL Analysis Within

By Timm Schneider

***Charts best viewed on website (link below). Full details within*** Shares on Loan (‘SOL’) are simply shares that lenders (agent + other) have lent to market participants wanting to ‘short’ a particular security. For our analysis,…

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July 23, 2024

Natural Gas: Initial Takes from RRC; EQT & MTDR Reinforce Our ‘Volume & Volatility Over Price (V^2>P)’ Sector Thesis

By Timm Schneider

See within for initial takes as well as our updated estimates for Thursday’s injection number. Please note at the time of this writing we are 1) Long the OCT-24 NYMEX natural gas contract; and 2)…

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July 23, 2024

Sadly, Our Proprietary 2H’24 Outlook Survey Shows Energy Sector Performance Thru Year-End is Simply a De-Facto Call on 1) Oil Prices; and 2) Fund Flows. Capital Allocation Decisions by Firms Don’t Matter Much (they all know the playbook)

By Timm Schneider

Within we share the commodity and industry focused results of our proprietary 2H’24 outlook survey (14 questions total). Once again, thx to the ~150 responses. The make-up of our responders was as follows: 1) ~35%…

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