Our Research


June 15, 2024

Countdown to 2025: 199 Days Remaining! Check Out Our Revamped Energy M&A Bingo Card. Deals Need to Get Done Through Summer!

By Timm Schneider

…How many of the below ‘thought’ transactions will get done before Year-End? We’d like to see at least four or five… Given U.S. presidential election timing dynamics, we believe end of summer is somewhat of…

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June 13, 2024

And My Favorite (Hypothetical) Energy Infrastructure Marriage Would be…?! Framing Strategic Rationale & Likelihood Around 20 Potential Tie-Ups (Part II)

By Timm Schneider

This is Part II of our Deep-Dive Energy Sector M&A Series (‘The Summer of M&A’), focused on Midstream Transactions. Recall we published Part I focused on Upstream combinations yesterday (EOG Should Buy DVN. SHEL Should…

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June 12, 2024

EOG Should Buy DVN. SHEL Should Buy BP… These Will Likely Never Happen: Framing Strategic Rationale Around 15 Hypothetical Upstream M&A Transactions (Part I)

By Timm Schneider

As we noted earlier today, within we provide a detailed (hypothetical) transaction-by-transaction overview of why select deals could make sense, or not. Deals that are highly accretive on paper and also carry strategic rationale are:…

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June 11, 2024

NEE Analyst Day (Maintain Short): Adj. Midpoint EPS Guide Implies ~2 – 6% Move Lower But Street Confident in High End (Implies Flat Trading Range). Overall Blah vs. Elevated Expectations…

By Timm Schneider

Earlier this morning, NEE released an updated ~160 page slide deck outlining longer term expectations (through 2027). Mid-point EPS CAGR remained unchanged through 2027 at seven percent Adjusted mid-point EPS are – on average –…

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June 10, 2024

NE/ DO Merger: Detailed Pro-Forma Financial Analysis Shows ~15%+ FCF/ Share Accretion in 2025E+ (Leverage/ EPS/ EBITDA est. within)

By Timm Schneider

We closed our our DO Long in the Model Portfolio earlier today on the heels of the NE for DO merger announcement. DO had been one of our best performers in the Long book since…

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June 10, 2024

Force-Ranking 73 Hypothetical Energy M&A Transactions on 1) FCF; 2) Leverage; 3) EPS; and 4) EBITDA Accretion. The Best One is an E&P Combination…

By Timm Schneider

First of all, thank you for all the feedback on our recent comprehensive sector M&A note (link). This remains one of our most read notes with ~1,000 reads over the past five days. Recall in…

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June 10, 2024

Model Portfolio Update: Closing DO Long (~30% Total Return Since Inception) After Announced Acquisition by NE

By Timm Schneider

Effective immediately, we are closing our DO Long in the Model Portfolio. DO had been one of our best performers on the Long side, with a total return of ~30% since inception on January 10th….

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June 9, 2024

Your Weekly Energy News Summary for the Week Ending June 9th 2024

By Timm Schneider

For the news, we include a brief summary description for each headline. We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are…

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June 8, 2024

Model Portfolio: Short Book Outperformance Grinds Out ~100bps Overall; Pressing Our NEE Short into the Analyst Day This Week…

By Timm Schneider

Model Portfolio performance versus benchmarks since inception: 1) vs. XOP (Upstream) 1.8%; 2) vs. XLE (Energy) 1.2%; 3) vs. AMNA (Infrastructure) 0.9%; 4) vs. XLU (Utilities) -1.4%; vs. SPX -5.3%. Our Model Portfolio is ahead again…

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June 7, 2024

NATURAL GAS: Rolling Out Our Proprietary U.S. Regional Storage Model and Weekly Storage Forecast; V^2 > P…

By Timm Schneider

We are excited to further enhance the product offering of The Schneider Capital Group (TSCG). ***Details within including detailed regional storage forecasts for the week ending 6/7/2024*** With this report, we are rolling out our…

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June 6, 2024

Largest Moves in w/w ‘SOL’ Utilization: SUN/ ENB/ NPWR/ FCEL/ EQT/ APA/ EQNR/ SU/ TS/ ACDC/ ATO/ NI; E&P ‘SOL’ Bullish, OFS Bearish

By Timm Schneider

See within for detailed stock & sector observations. Charts best viewed on website (link below). We now include full charts (~170 corporates) for 1) Midstream & Energy Infrastructure; 2) Clean Tech/ Renewables/ Alternative Energy; 3)…

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June 5, 2024

Midstream Bankers, Maybe Pick Up the Phone? Deep-Dive M&A Analysis Suggests Midstream M&A Can Be Highly Accretive; Many Upstream Combinations Still Make Sense…

By Timm Schneider

This report constitutes the most comprehensive Energy sector analysis M&A we have published, yet. We build on our prior accretion/ dilution analysis of ~73 hypothetical M&A scenarios in the 1) Upstream; 2) Midstream; and 3)…

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June 5, 2024

Texas Oil Completions Nose-Dive in May While Gas Completions & Permit Counts Rise Slightly… I Have a Question for E&P Operators

By Timm Schneider

Yesterday, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) released the monthly ‘Summary of Drilling Permits, Completions and Plugging Reports Processed’ for the month of May. Within we provide a detailed analysis showing: 1) sequential (vs. April 2024);…

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June 5, 2024

Texas Oil Completions Nose-Dive in May While Gas Completions & Permit Counts Rise Slightly… I Have a Question for E&P Operators

By Timm Schneider

Yesterday, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) released the monthly ‘Summary of Drilling Permits, Completions and Plugging Reports Processed’ for the month of May. Within we provide a detailed analysis showing: 1) sequential (vs. April 2024);…

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June 4, 2024

2H Equity Returns Required To Reach 52-Week Highs for All Energy & Utility Sub-Sectors

By Timm Schneider

With the end of H1 as a marker, we took a look at equity returns required to reach respective 52-week highs for ~180 issuers across various energy & utility sub-sectors. Said differently, who is trading…

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