Our Research


November 16, 2023

Forget Change in Control… What is a CEO’s NPV Optimal Play in the M&A Game?

By Timm Schneider

A few weeks ago we published a comprehensive M&A survey. Who gets bought, who is the buyer etc. Full details on website. In this note we take a look at CEO CIC (Change in Control)…

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November 14, 2023

EIA Drilling Productivity Report Shows Strong Permian Volumes; Signs of Declining Bakken & Eagle Ford GORs?

By Timm Schneider

Realize some folks don’t like the EIA (or IEA) data, but the new drilling productivity report just got released yesterday. Also out earlier this morning (U.S. Time), the IEA Monthly Oil Market report. Happy to talk through…

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November 13, 2023

Real Time (‘SOL’) with Timm Schneider: Looks Like OFS & Integrated Shorts Are Funding E&P Longs…

By Timm Schneider

***Excel Data Available Upon Request. Full Company Level Details (~200 Corporates) Within*** The following equities exhibited notable w/w changes in their active shares on loan utilization… (we are using end of October as a benchmark…

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November 11, 2023

Model Portfolio & Trade Idea Performance Tracker. Anyone Around for the Penn St Game?

By Timm Schneider

Happy Saturday, I will be in the West Village today for the Penn State game if anyone is around and wants to chat Energy. Ping me. Within we provide our updated performance metrics for 1)…

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November 10, 2023

***Closing Our Underweight PLUG Position in the Core Model Portfolio***

By Timm Schneider

Shares of PLUG are down ~40% on the day and ~68% since 6/30/2023, the inception of our Core Model Portfolio. We are closing our Underweight position, effective immediately, following the company’s Q3 earnings release and…

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November 5, 2023

Model Portfolio Updates & Performance… I Started Naming the Trades…

By Timm Schneider

Biggest Single Stock Losers (Since Inception): UW VLO (-7%) OW KMI (-4%) UW BP (-3%) Biggest Single Stock Winners (Since Inception): UW PLUG (+57%) UW NEE (+25%) OW PXD (+16%; This position has been closed)…

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November 5, 2023

Last Min Trip to NYC + Your Weekend News. Good Luck all Marathoners…

By Timm Schneider

…The runners (NYC marathon today). Though I believe Marathon (MPC + MPLX) are well run entities, so I guess good luck to them as well! Also, I had some last minute engagements pop up in…

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November 1, 2023

Core Model Portfolio Update: Maintain OW Energy Transfer (ET)…

By Timm Schneider

Following ET’s Q3 1) earnings release; 2) guidance update(s); and 3) conference call, we are maintaining our ‘Overweight’ call as part of our Core Model Portfolio (Book 1). Recall we closed out our OW on…

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October 31, 2023

Effective Immediately, We are Removing ‘OW EPD’ from Our Core Model Portfolio

By Timm Schneider

Recall we initiated the OW call on 6/30/2023 at a price of $26.35 per unit. We are closing it out today at a price of ~$26.20 (at time of this writing), for a loss (per unit;…

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October 31, 2023

Quick Trading Update on the Model Portfolio (EPD/ SHEL/ ET) + MPLX + KMI… And E&P over Midstream?!

By Timm Schneider

At a very high level – and we don’t want to read too much into EPD’s ‘hot’ capex – but with E&P companies doing more with less broadly speaking (costs/ capex down and production at…

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October 30, 2023

M&A Survey Results (Part 2): Full List of Companies; Ranked And Sorted by *Buyer* and *Target*

By Timm Schneider

We received a lot of inbounds after publishing our M&A Survey Results yesterday. If you missed the initial publication, you can access it via the website here: (Part 1) Within, we provide a table that…

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October 30, 2023

Real Time (‘SOL’) with Timm Schneider: Are Integrateds/ Refiners a Source of Funds for E&Ps?!

By Timm Schneider

***Excel Data Available Upon Request. Full Company Level Details (~200 Corporates) Within*** The following equities exhibited notable w/w changes in their active shares on loan utilization… Higher: SUN/ GEL/ PAGP/ NPWR/ BE/ RUN/ FCEL/ VTLE/ SD/…

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October 29, 2023

M&A Survey ‘Most Mentioned:’ 1) DVN; 2) COP; 3) PR; 4) MRO; and 5) TRGP… But the Plot Thickens

By Timm Schneider

Thank you for the well over 200 responses! This is one of the most comprehensive M&A surveys we have ever performed! Affiliation of survey takers: 1) ~37% Portfolio Company/ Corporate; 2) ~21% Long-Only; 3) ~17%…

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October 29, 2023

Your Weekend News Catch-up… Also, Why Did the Ghost Go Into the Bar?!

By Timm Schneider

…For the boos… Happy Sunday! We only include links to news sources that do NOT require you to have a subscription to the respective site, or if they do, they are free of charge. However,…

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October 25, 2023

***Adding SHEL OW and Removing DVN from our Core Model Portfolio***

By Timm Schneider

Effective immediately, we are removing DVN as an Overweight from our Model Portfolio Number 1 (our Core Portfolio), for a one percent relative loss since inception. ***We are adding SHEL to replace DVN*** We believe…

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