Our Research

Within, we share our updated Model Portfolio reflecting a number of recent changes in positions. Recall the Model Portfolio consists of a ~$100mm Long/ Short book featuring – at the moment – 40 Longs and…

‘Materialschlacht’ is a German term, literally ‘Battle of Material,’ used to describe wars or battles where victory depends less on tactics and more on which side can sustain higher levels of industrial output and resource…

We had initially floated our highly non-consensus long Water (Utilities) versus short IPPs last week (link) – no one cared – framing it as an ‘AI unwind’ hedge trade. We never put it on in…

Your Sunday freebie. Full caveat – take this with a grain of salt – these are NOT regulated exchanges – and there can be wide disclocations versus when trading actually resumes on regulated markets (tonight…

Most interest in FANG/ XOM + Select Refiners/ Offshore drillers. We believe we have a more unique perspective on this (versus peers) as we do not look at sectors in isolation, but rather across the…

Last week we ran a brief survey post the BRK results and new shareholder letter (Which Public Energy (or Adjacent) Business Should Berkshire (BRK) Take Private?). This was one of our lowest response surveys ever…

Our Sentiment Driven Short-Term Love/Hate Portfolio (LHP5; Fifth iteration of the year) has Worst Week YTD. Quick takes 2/27/2026 thru today down 400bps. We will close this portfolio next Friday (03-13-2026). Our Love/ Hate portfolios…

Efffective immediately, we are making the following position changes to the model portfolio: Closing our LNG Long (from a ~1% position in the Long book) at a mark of ~$255.39 for a total return of…

Game theory is the formal study of how rational (big caveat in our case…) players make decisions when their outcomes depend not just on their own choices, but also on what everyone else does. It…

Our model portfolio is back in the green (finally) with a total return ~320bps since inception on January 9th. We have made several positioning changes since then, and are making some further tweaks with this…

Within, we take a detailed look at active real-time shares-on-loan (SOL) utilization for ~200 issuers across our six sub-sectors: 1) Midstream & Energy Infrastructure; 2) Clean Tech; 3) E&Ps; 4) Integrateds/Majors & Refiners; 5) Global Oilfield Services…

…according to our analysis. Of course, we had to take a risky front month short (way to early) overnight – we actually cancelled our initial ~$3.15 limit to get in sub ~$3 – highly unfortunate….

Effective immediately we have made weighing adjustments in the Model Portfolio for FANG/ LNG/ PR as follows: FANG (LONG) to a 5% weight from a 9% weight. Total return since inception on January 9th ~20.5%….

Ignore that title if this turns out to be a one-to-two week ‘nothing-burger’ BUT we’ve spent the past few hours going down various ‘rabbit holes’ around the Iran crisis and more specifically the 1) Strait…

As a side note, we’ve already heard a bunch of comparisons of Operation Epic Fury (OEF) to Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Having spent a fair bit of time on the ground in Iraq around that…